沙田 · 2024-06-15 · 09:02
第 3場
2024-06-15沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1600米，跑道評為SOFT。由M F Poon策騎、C W Chang訓練的CASA LEGEND勝出，贏出1/2。LEATHER MASTER獲得亞軍；SMART BEAUTY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以4.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CASA LEGEND 後段發力 P/TT 1.37.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 5 | 4.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | LEATHER MASTER 後段發力 B B Thompson · T P Yung | B Thompson | T P Yung | 8 | 24.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | SMART BEAUTY 後段發力 B/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 14 | 5.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | FOXHUNTER WAY K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 10 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SUPERB DADDY 後段發力 Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 43.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | GENERAL WINNER CP/TT2 A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP 後段發力 B H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 11 | 8.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | HAPPY HUNK 早段領放 CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 2 | 30.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 7 | 6.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | DIAMOND WINNER 後段發力 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 13 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 12 | 29.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | SUNNY BABY CP A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 4 | 31.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | BULB PRINCE H/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 3 | 17.0 | 16 |
| 14 | 5 | LADY BILLIE H/P M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 9 | 103.0 | 18 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GENERAL WINNER | 18.7% | 5.33 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | SMART BEAUTY | 15.3% | 6.52 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 13.2% | 7.56 | 9 |
| 4 | 2 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 11.8% | 8.50 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | CASA LEGEND | 9.1% | 11.03 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 5.1% | 19.51 | 4 |
| 7 | 14 | HANG'S CHOICE | 5.0% | 20.06 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | SUPERB DADDY | 4.9% | 20.55 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | HAPPY HUNK | 4.1% | 24.31 | 8 |
| 10 | 13 | DIAMOND WINNER | 3.6% | 27.94 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | SUNNY BABY | 3.3% | 30.00 | 12 |
| 12 | 1 | BULB PRINCE | 2.8% | 35.72 | 13 |
| 13 | 8 | LEATHER MASTER | 2.4% | 41.40 | 2 |
| 14 | 5 | LADY BILLIE | 0.6% | 162.50 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 45.5
PLACE
4 24
8 66.5
9 17.5
QUINELLA
8,9 659
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 238
4,9 73.5
8,9 204.5
FORECAST
9,8 1,053
TIERCE
9,8,4 8,744
TRIO
4,8,9 1,336
FIRST 4
4,8,9,12 2,870
QUARTET
9,8,4,12 73,485
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,10/4,8,9 144,941
2ND DOUBLE
3/8 313
3/9 429