沙田 · 2024-07-14 · 02:29
第 9場
2024-07-14沙田第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K W Lui訓練的PACKING HERMOD勝出，贏出3。MONTA FRUTTA獲得亞軍；SUPER JOY N FUN獲得季軍。頭馬以2.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | PACKING HERMOD 1.08.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 8 | 2.1 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | MONTA FRUTTA H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 55.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | SUPER JOY N FUN XB C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 11 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | GOKO WIN B A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 7 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | PHOENIX LIGHT H E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 5 | 22.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | REWARD SMILE TT H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 3 | 5.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | YEAH BUDDY B1/TT M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | 13 | 127.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SILO H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 1 | 5.5 | 6 |
| 9 | 13 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 12 | 53.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | SOVEREIGN FUND B/TT K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 2 | 64.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | GOR MO TUEN TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 4 | 154.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER B/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 32.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 8 | BITS SUPERSTAR CP1 K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 14 | 23.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | DREAM WINNER CP/TT1 C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 72.0 | 18-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | PACKING HERMOD | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | REWARD SMILE | 7.0% | 14.26 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | SUPER JOY N FUN | 6.2% | 16.24 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | PHOENIX LIGHT | 4.8% | 20.90 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | BITS SUPERSTAR | 4.3% | 23.03 | 13 |
| 6 | 5 | SILO | 4.3% | 23.45 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | MONTA FRUTTA | 4.3% | 23.51 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | GOKO WIN | 2.8% | 35.15 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | DREAM WINNER | 2.4% | 42.19 | 14 |
| 10 | 13 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS | 2.2% | 46.04 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | SOVEREIGN FUND | 1.8% | 55.22 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER | 1.7% | 57.38 | 12 |
| 13 | 9 | GOR MO TUEN | 0.8% | 124.25 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | YEAH BUDDY | 0.6% | 178.87 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 21.5
PLACE
7 29.5
10 119
12 13
QUINELLA
10,12 690.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 617
7,12 47.5
10,12 217.5
FORECAST
12,10 705
TIERCE
12,10,7 4,817
TRIO
7,10,12 1,264
FIRST 4
4,7,10,12 2,137
QUARTET
12,10,7,4 31,137
全部彩池（另 2 項）
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,6/7,10,12 21,914
8TH DOUBLE
4/10 208
4/12 35