沙田 · 2024-07-14 · 02:29
第 5場
2024-07-14沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、P C Ng訓練的FIRST LOVE勝出，贏出1/2。FUN N GLORY獲得亞軍；SUGAR BALL獲得季軍。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FIRST LOVE 1.09.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 2 | 2.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | FUN N GLORY XB H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 9 | 8.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | SUGAR BALL H/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 6 | 55.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | PACKING ANGEL TT1 L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 5 | 8.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | OMAKASE K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 14 | 98.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 12 | 7.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | LUCKY GENERATIONS SR1/TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 33.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | X FACTOR B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 10 | 60.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | VIEW OF THE WORLD A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 11 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | DEAL COMPLETED B1/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 3 | 83.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | KA YING WARRIOR XB- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 4.1 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | FUNG B1/TT1 H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 8 | 136.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | LORD OF THE ROSE M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 103.0 | 16-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FIRST LOVE | 28.1% | 3.56 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | KA YING WARRIOR | 26.0% | 3.84 | 12 |
| 3 | 5 | LUCKY GENERATIONS | 10.9% | 9.17 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | FUN N GLORY | 6.7% | 15.00 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | PACKING ANGEL | 6.3% | 15.90 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | VIEW OF THE WORLD | 5.0% | 20.05 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | HAPPY FOR ALL | 4.4% | 22.80 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | X FACTOR | 3.2% | 31.30 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 3.2% | 31.36 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | SUGAR BALL | 2.8% | 36.29 | 3 |
| 11 | 13 | OMAKASE | 1.9% | 53.75 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | DEAL COMPLETED | 0.6% | 175.90 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | FUNG | 0.6% | 179.35 | 13 |
| 14 | 14 | LORD OF THE ROSE | 0.5% | 189.60 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 28.5
PLACE
2 111.5
4 12.5
11 24.5
QUINELLA
4,11 118
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 203.5
2,11 430
4,11 47
FORECAST
4,11 177
TIERCE
4,11,2 4,357
TRIO
2,4,11 1,360
FIRST 4
2,4,6,11 2,114
QUARTET
4,11,2,6 36,766
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST TREBLE
7/4/4 900
7/4/11 476
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,13/2,4,11 1,051,086
4TH DOUBLE
4/4 191.5
4/11 73