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Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 02:29

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FIRST LOVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with FUN N GLORY second and SUGAR BALL third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 FIRST LOVE 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 2 2.8 1/2
2 11 FUN N GLORY XB H Bentley · D J Hall 9 8.9 1/2
3 2 SUGAR BALL H/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 6 55.0 2-1/4
4 6 PACKING ANGEL TT1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 8.5 2-1/4
5 13 OMAKASE K Teetan · Y S Tsui 14 98.0 2-1/4
6 12 HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 12 7.2 2-1/4
7 5 LUCKY GENERATIONS SR1/TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes 4 33.0 2-1/2
8 9 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 16.0 3-1/4
9 8 X FACTOR B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 60.0 4
10 7 VIEW OF THE WORLD A Badel · C H Yip 11 11.0 4-1/4
11 3 DEAL COMPLETED B1/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 3 83.0 6-1/2
12 1 KA YING WARRIOR XB- C L Chau · T P Yung 13 4.1 8-1/2
13 10 FUNG B1/TT1 H T Mo · C W Chang 8 136.0 12-1/2
14 14 LORD OF THE ROSE M L Yeung · W Y So 1 103.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIRST LOVE2. FUN N GLORY+0.5L3. SUGAR BALL+2.25L4. PACKING ANGEL+2.25L5. OMAKASE+2.25L6. HAPPY FOR ALL+2.25L7. LUCKY GENERATIONS+2.5L8. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+3.25L9. X FACTOR+4L10. VIEW OF THE WORLD+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FIRST LOVE (28.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FIRST LOVE 28.1% 3.56 1
2 1 KA YING WARRIOR 26.0% 3.84 12
3 5 LUCKY GENERATIONS 10.9% 9.17 7
4 11 FUN N GLORY 6.7% 15.00 2
5 6 PACKING ANGEL 6.3% 15.90 4
6 7 VIEW OF THE WORLD 5.0% 20.05 10
7 12 HAPPY FOR ALL 4.4% 22.80 6
8 8 X FACTOR 3.2% 31.30 9
9 9 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 3.2% 31.36 8
10 2 SUGAR BALL 2.8% 36.29 3
11 13 OMAKASE 1.9% 53.75 5
12 3 DEAL COMPLETED 0.6% 175.90 11
13 10 FUNG 0.6% 179.35 13
14 14 LORD OF THE ROSE 0.5% 189.60 14
FIRST LOVE — wonKA YING WARRIORLUCKY GENERATIONSFUN N GLORYPACKING ANGELVIEW OF THE WORLDHAPPY FOR ALLX FACTORYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGSUGAR BALLOMAKASEDEAL COMPLETEDFUNGLORD OF THE ROSE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 28.5

PLACE

2 111.5

4 12.5

11 24.5

QUINELLA

4,11 118

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 203.5

2,11 430

4,11 47

FORECAST

4,11 177

TIERCE

4,11,2 4,357

TRIO

2,4,11 1,360

FIRST 4

2,4,6,11 2,114

QUARTET

4,11,2,6 36,766

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/4/4 900

7/4/11 476

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,13/2,4,11 1,051,086

4TH DOUBLE

4/4 191.5

4/11 73