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Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 02:29

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY DAILY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with BRILLIANT EXPRESS second and FIGHTING MACHINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite BRILLIANT EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT 1.22.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C H Yip 6 5.9 SH
2 7 BRILLIANT EXPRESS Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 1 3.8 SH
3 4 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR Z Purton · P C Ng 10 6.2 N
4 13 AFFIRM TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 3 4.8 2-1/2
5 1 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So 2 6.6 2-1/2
6 8 DRAGON FOUR SEAS B1 M Chadwick · K L Man 14 48.0 2-3/4
7 6 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes 13 31.0 3-1/4
8 5 HAPPY PARK Led early XB1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 55.0 3-3/4
9 10 IVICTORIAM B/XB/TT B Thompson · J Richards 4 132.0 5-1/4
10 11 THE AZURE Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 9 27.0 5-3/4
11 2 THE ABSOLUTE CP1/XB1/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 8 13.0 6
12 14 AMAZING RUN K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 16.0 10-3/4
13 3 FORTUNE WHISKEY H/P H T Mo · C W Chang 11 91.0 14-1/2
14 9 ACE ONE B/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 12 118.0 32-1/4
0 MISTER FOX K Teetan · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY DAILY2. BRILLIANT EXPRESS+0.1L3. FIGHTING MACHINE+0.05L4. AFFIRM+2.5L5. OWNERS' PRAISE+2.5L6. DRAGON FOUR SEAS+2.75L7. STORM LEGEND+3.25L8. HAPPY PARK+3.75L9. IVICTORIAM+5.25L10. THE AZURE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BRILLIANT EXPRESS (19.7%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY DAILY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BRILLIANT EXPRESS 19.7% 5.07 2
2 13 AFFIRM 14.3% 7.01 4
3 4 FIGHTING MACHINE 14.1% 7.10 3
4 1 OWNERS' PRAISE 11.1% 9.04 5
5 6 STORM LEGEND 9.1% 10.99 7
6 5 HAPPY PARK 8.1% 12.31 8
7 14 AMAZING RUN 7.1% 14.17 12
8 12 HAPPY DAILY 4.9% 20.60 1
9 11 THE AZURE 3.4% 29.57 10
10 8 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 2.9% 34.99 6
11 2 THE ABSOLUTE 2.8% 35.74 11
12 9 ACE ONE 1.2% 82.69 14
13 3 FORTUNE WHISKEY 1.0% 95.67 13
14 10 IVICTORIAM 0.4% 244.63 9
BRILLIANT EXPRESSAFFIRMFIGHTING MACHINEOWNERS' PRAISESTORM LEGENDHAPPY PARKAMAZING RUNHAPPY DAILY — wonTHE AZUREDRAGON FOUR SEASTHE ABSOLUTEACE ONEFORTUNE WHISKEYIVICTORIAM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 59

PLACE

4 22.5

7 17

12 18.5

QUINELLA

7,12 119.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 53.5

4,12 69.5

7,12 51.5

FORECAST

12,7 277

TIERCE

12,7,4 1,512

TRIO

4,7,12 245

FIRST 4

4,7,12,13 155

QUARTET

12,7,4,13 4,999

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/7 19

4/12 240.5