Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 02:29

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PATCH OF THETA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with BEAUTY CRESCENT second and PRESTIGE ALWAYS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.46

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly H-/XB 1.21.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui	H Bowman	K W Lui	6	135 lb	2.2	2-1/4
2	2	BEAUTY CRESCENT Closed strongly TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	10	134 lb	5.3	2-1/4
3	6	PRESTIGE ALWAYS Closed strongly B K Teetan · P C Ng	K Teetan	P C Ng	14	126 lb	24.0	2-1/4
4	13	SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham	L Hewitson	M Newnham	4	120 lb	14.0	3-1/2
5	14	THRIVING BROTHERS Closed strongly A Badel · D J Whyte	A Badel	D J Whyte	11	119 lb	31.0	3-3/4
6	5	AMAZING VICTORY Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · W Y So	A Atzeni	W Y So	5	126 lb	18.0	3-3/4
7	3	BEAUTY FIT E/P B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	3	132 lb	13.0	7-1/4
8	10	CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	7	121 lb	34.0	7-1/4
9	4	GOLDEN ARTIE Closed strongly XB/H2 E C W Wong · P F Yiu	E C W Wong	P F Yiu	9	121 lb	19.0	7-1/2
10	8	GIDDY UP TT A Hamelin · J Richards	A Hamelin	J Richards	1	123 lb	8.2	8-1/2
11	11	PHANTOM CYCLONE Closed strongly V1/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	8	120 lb	146.0	8-1/2
12	12	ROMAN CROWN M F Poon · P C Ng	M F Poon	P C Ng	2	119 lb	20.0	13-1/4
13	7	MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V H T Mo · F C Lor	H T Mo	F C Lor	12	123 lb	86.0	18-3/4
14	9	LOST CHILD B Thompson · C W Chang	B Thompson	C W Chang	13	123 lb	25.0	26-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick PATCH OF THETA (31.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	PATCH OF THETA	31.3%	3.20	1	2.2
2	2	BEAUTY CRESCENT	12.7%	7.88	2	5.3
3	3	BEAUTY FIT	8.8%	11.36	7	13.0
4	4	GOLDEN ARTIE	7.0%	14.31	9	19.0
5	13	SETANTA	6.8%	14.61	4	14.0
6	8	GIDDY UP	6.2%	16.10	10	8.2
7	10	CALIFORNIA DEEPLY	6.0%	16.70	8	34.0
8	5	AMAZING VICTORY	4.8%	20.63	6	18.0
9	6	PRESTIGE ALWAYS	4.4%	22.86	3	24.0
10	9	LOST CHILD	4.3%	23.48	14	25.0
11	14	THRIVING BROTHERS	3.0%	33.53	5	31.0
12	7	MASSIVE ACTION	2.1%	47.78	13	86.0
13	12	ROMAN CROWN	1.7%	59.44	12	20.0
14	11	PHANTOM CYCLONE	1.0%	102.13	11	146.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 22.5

PLACE

1 13

2 17.5

6 66.5

QUINELLA

1,2 58

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 25

1,6 112

2,6 201.5

FORECAST

1,2 75

TIERCE

1,2,6 1,047

TRIO

1,2,6 332

FIRST 4

1,2,6,13 1,191

QUARTET

1,2,6,13 13,211

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

3/1 338.5

3/2 117.5

2ND TREBLE

12/3/1 590

12/3/2 196

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,8/1,2,6 69,859

SIX UP

7,12/1,2/1,4/10,12/1,3/1,2 241

12/2/4/12/3/1 8,745

1 [Z Purton] —

1 [K W Lui] —

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