Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 02:29
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. YOUNG ACHIEVER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 2-1/4, with HOLY LAKE second and THE HEIR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite I CAN finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | YOUNG ACHIEVER Closed strongly SR/TT 1.34.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 3 | 8.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | THE HEIR Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 7.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 14 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 12 | 5.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | FALLON Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | PRAY FOR MIR M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 5.9 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 1 | 5.8 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 13 | 126.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | ARIEL CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 8 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SMART CITY CP M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 7 | 23.0 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | TOURBILLON PRINCE TT H Bowman · T P Yung | H Bowman | T P Yung | 11 | 27.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | SATIRICAL FAN Led early CP/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum | E C W Wong | C S Shum | 10 | 32.0 | 14-3/4 |
| — | 13 | SURUGA BAY K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PRAY FOR MIR | 16.4% | 6.09 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | YOUNG ACHIEVER | 15.1% | 6.63 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 13.4% | 7.47 | 8 |
| 4 | 10 | ARIEL | 8.8% | 11.30 | 10 |
| 5 | 9 | SATIRICAL FAN | 8.8% | 11.31 | 13 |
| 6 | 14 | I CAN | 8.3% | 12.11 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | HOLY LAKE | 7.6% | 13.14 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | THE HEIR | 6.1% | 16.33 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | BEAUTY LIVE | 5.4% | 18.55 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | TOURBILLON PRINCE | 4.0% | 24.91 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | SMART CITY | 3.0% | 33.85 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | FALLON | 2.4% | 41.02 | 6 |
| 13 | 11 | PERFECT PAIRING | 0.7% | 152.39 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 111
PLACE
1 30
3 37.5
8 24.5
QUINELLA
1,3 484
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 156
1,8 154.5
3,8 162
FORECAST
3,1 891
TIERCE
3,1,8 6,621
TRIO
1,3,8 1,595
FIRST 4
1,3,8,14 1,238
QUARTET
3,1,8,14 35,471
All pools (1 more)
9TH DOUBLE
12/1 23
12/3 282.5