Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 17:30
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B 1.48.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 11 | 5.2 | SH |
| 2 | 13 | FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 1 | 28.0 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | GOOD GOOD B Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 2.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | STORM WINNER TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 14 | CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 10 | 17.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | REACH GOAL Closed strongly CP1/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 12 | 34.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | FLYING SILVER TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 9 | 34.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | DEVILDOM B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 49.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B-/P1 E C W Wong · M Newnham | E C W Wong | M Newnham | 3 | 49.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | GOLD TACK Closed strongly B A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 14 | 11.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 13 | 2 | AFFORDABLE CP-/B1/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 2 | 49.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | CIRCUIT VICTORY M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 13 | 81.0 | 15-3/4 |
| — | 0 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET · P C Ng | — | P C Ng | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. VOLCANIC SPARK, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with FOREVER FOLKS second and FOREVER GLORIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite GOOD GOOD finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | GOOD GOOD | 21.2% | 4.71 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | VOLCANIC SPARK | 12.5% | 7.97 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | MISSION BRAVO | 12.1% | 8.27 | 11 |
| 4 | 12 | GOLD TACK | 8.5% | 11.78 | 12 |
| 5 | 3 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 8.2% | 12.23 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | KASA PAPA | 7.8% | 12.75 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | FOREVER FOLKS | 7.7% | 12.91 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | FLYING SILVER | 5.4% | 18.42 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | REACH GOAL | 4.7% | 21.18 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | STORM WINNER | 3.8% | 26.25 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 3.3% | 30.29 | 7 |
| 12 | 1 | DEVILDOM | 2.6% | 39.13 | 10 |
| 13 | 6 | CIRCUIT VICTORY | 1.1% | 88.85 | 14 |
| 14 | 2 | AFFORDABLE | 0.9% | 107.37 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 52
PLACE
3 29.5
4 18.5
13 55.5
QUINELLA
4,13 779
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 77
3,13 252.5
4,13 179.5
FORECAST
4,13 1,261
TIERCE
4,13,3 8,524
TRIO
3,4,13 1,411
FIRST 4
3,4,9,13 520
QUARTET
4,13,3,9 17,704
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/4 289.5
7/13 225