Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 02:29

Race 2

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 7 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY WAVES, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with CALL ME GLORIOUS second and DUKE WAI third. The 1.5 favourite CALL ME GLORIOUS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.01

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	BEAUTY WAVES E1/TT 1.08.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng	A Badel	P C Ng	2	118 lb	8.2	1-1/4
2	5	CALL ME GLORIOUS Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	5	119 lb	1.5	1-1/4
3	2	DUKE WAI V H Bowman · P C Ng	H Bowman	P C Ng	7	132 lb	9.1	2-3/4
4	1	PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	1	135 lb	16.0	3
5	3	SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	3	126 lb	23.0	3-1/4
6	4	HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	6	122 lb	30.0	5-1/4
7	6	JAMES TAK CP C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	4	119 lb	5.4	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick CALL ME GLORIOUS (45.6%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY WAVES was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	CALL ME GLORIOUS	45.6%	2.19	2	1.5
2	7	BEAUTY WAVES	21.8%	4.58	1	8.2
3	6	JAMES TAK	12.3%	8.15	7	5.4
4	3	SUPERB CAPITALIST	7.0%	14.20	5	23.0
5	4	HARMONY N BLESSED	5.5%	18.03	6	30.0
6	1	PACKING TREADMILL	4.5%	22.46	4	16.0
7	2	DUKE WAI	3.3%	30.41	3	9.1

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 82

PLACE

2 17

5 13

7 18.5

QUINELLA

5,7 53.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 27.5

2,7 72.5

5,7 25

FORECAST

7,5 210

TIERCE

7,5,2 909

TRIO

2,5,7 112

FIRST 4

1,2,5,7 135

QUARTET

7,5,2,1 4,771

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/5 42.5

11/7 1,549.5

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