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Sha Tin · 2024-07-14 · 02:29

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-14 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER ELITE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with JOYFUL LIFE second and CHEER FOR SOUTH third. The 5.4 favourite CHEER FOR SOUTH finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUPER ELITE B/H/XB 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 7 11.0 2
2 2 JOYFUL LIFE TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 7.3 2
3 7 CHEER FOR SOUTH SR K Teetan · F C Lor 10 5.4 2-3/4
4 3 LUCKY QUALITY V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 12.0 3-1/4
5 4 YOUTH POWER B1/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 3 43.0 4
6 1 CERVIN TT M L Yeung · W Y So 13 27.0 4
7 12 REGENCY HAPPY STAR B L Hewitson · C W Chang 8 11.0 4-1/4
8 9 RATTAN WORLD B2/TT K De Melo · J Richards 1 5.8 4-1/2
9 5 GOOD VIEW GLORY B A Atzeni · C H Yip 4 6.5 5
10 14 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR XB A Badel · T P Yung 9 27.0 7-1/4
11 13 DRAGON KINGDOM H T Mo · Y S Tsui 5 7.3 8-1/4
12 6 ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting 6 15.0 9-1/4
13 8 E TALENT B/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 2 92.0 20-1/2
10 SUPER JOY M Chadwick · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER ELITE2. JOYFUL LIFE+2L3. CHEER FOR SOUTH+2.75L4. LUCKY QUALITY+3.25L5. YOUTH POWER+4L6. CERVIN+4L7. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+4.25L8. RATTAN WORLD+4.5L9. GOOD VIEW GLORY+5L10. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOOD VIEW GLORY (19.8%) finished 9th — the winner SUPER ELITE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GOOD VIEW GLORY 19.8% 5.06 9
2 7 CHEER FOR SOUTH 16.7% 6.00 3
3 11 SUPER ELITE 12.8% 7.79 1
4 2 JOYFUL LIFE 11.5% 8.70 2
5 9 RATTAN WORLD 8.0% 12.48 8
6 6 ALLOY KING 6.8% 14.66 12
7 12 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 6.1% 16.31 7
8 13 DRAGON KINGDOM 4.9% 20.56 11
9 3 LUCKY QUALITY 4.3% 23.04 4
10 14 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 4.1% 24.35 10
11 8 E TALENT 1.8% 56.21 13
12 4 YOUTH POWER 1.7% 58.46 5
13 1 CERVIN 1.5% 68.32 6
GOOD VIEW GLORYCHEER FOR SOUTHSUPER ELITE — wonJOYFUL LIFERATTAN WORLDALLOY KINGREGENCY HAPPY STARDRAGON KINGDOMLUCKY QUALITYCIRCUIT SPLENDORE TALENTYOUTH POWERCERVIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 113

PLACE

2 25

7 20

11 38

QUINELLA

2,11 488.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 75

2,11 154.5

7,11 115.5

FORECAST

11,2 917

TIERCE

11,2,7 4,365

TRIO

2,7,11 648

FIRST 4

2,3,7,11 2,864

QUARTET

11,2,7,3 77,936