沙田 · 2024-07-14 · 02:29
第 11場
2024-07-14沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由H Bowman策騎、K W Lui訓練的PATCH OF THETA勝出，贏出2-1/4。BEAUTY CRESCENT獲得亞軍；PRESTIGE ALWAYS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF THETA 後段發力 H-/XB 1.21.46 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 6 | 2.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | BEAUTY CRESCENT 後段發力 TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 10 | 5.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | PRESTIGE ALWAYS 後段發力 B K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 14 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | SETANTA 後段發力 B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 4 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 14 | THRIVING BROTHERS 後段發力 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 11 | 31.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | AMAZING VICTORY 後段發力 TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 5 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | BEAUTY FIT E/P B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 13.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 34.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | GOLDEN ARTIE 後段發力 XB/H2 E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 9 | 19.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | GIDDY UP TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 8.2 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | PHANTOM CYCLONE 後段發力 V1/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 146.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | ROMAN CROWN M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 2 | 20.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | MASSIVE ACTION 早段領放 SR/V H T Mo · F C Lor | H T Mo | F C Lor | 12 | 86.0 | 18-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | LOST CHILD B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 13 | 25.0 | 26-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF THETA | 31.3% | 3.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 12.7% | 7.88 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | BEAUTY FIT | 8.8% | 11.36 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | GOLDEN ARTIE | 7.0% | 14.31 | 9 |
| 5 | 13 | SETANTA | 6.8% | 14.61 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | GIDDY UP | 6.2% | 16.10 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 6.0% | 16.70 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 | AMAZING VICTORY | 4.8% | 20.63 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | PRESTIGE ALWAYS | 4.4% | 22.86 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | LOST CHILD | 4.3% | 23.48 | 14 |
| 11 | 14 | THRIVING BROTHERS | 3.0% | 33.53 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | MASSIVE ACTION | 2.1% | 47.78 | 13 |
| 13 | 12 | ROMAN CROWN | 1.7% | 59.44 | 12 |
| 14 | 11 | PHANTOM CYCLONE | 1.0% | 102.13 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 22.5
PLACE
1 13
2 17.5
6 66.5
QUINELLA
1,2 58
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 25
1,6 112
2,6 201.5
FORECAST
1,2 75
TIERCE
1,2,6 1,047
TRIO
1,2,6 332
FIRST 4
1,2,6,13 1,191
QUARTET
1,2,6,13 13,211
全部彩池（另 4 項）
10TH DOUBLE
3/1 338.5
3/2 117.5
2ND TREBLE
12/3/1 590
12/3/2 196
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,8/1,2,6 69,859
SIX UP
7,12/1,2/1,4/10,12/1,3/1,2 241
12/2/4/12/3/1 8,745
1 [Z Purton] —
1 [K W Lui] —