沙田 · 2024-09-22
第 4場
2024-09-22沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米。由L Ferraris策騎、K L Man訓練的PATCH OF COSMO勝出，贏出SH。ETALON OR獲得亞軍；NORTHERN FIRE BALL獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門SANTORINI跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PATCH OF COSMO B1 1.10.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 12 | 4.8 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | ETALON OR B1 A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 11 | 24.0 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL H1 Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 8 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | ANGELIC CP-/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | RUN YES RUN CP E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 1 | 6.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | WORLD HERO B1 K De Melo · D A Hayes | K De Melo | D A Hayes | 9 | 59.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | SKYEY BLUE B-/TT1 M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 30.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SANTORINI CP K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 3.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | CONCORDE STAR TT K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 55.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | CASHISCASH CP-/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | SMART ZIPANG B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 7 | 127.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | SUPREME WINNER B1 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 13 | 46.0 | 7-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RUN YES RUN | 31.5% | 3.17 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | SANTORINI | 20.9% | 4.80 | 9 |
| 3 | 4 | PATCH OF COSMO | 14.6% | 6.85 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 7.2% | 13.84 | 6 |
| 5 | 7 | CASHISCASH | 5.5% | 18.26 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL | 4.9% | 20.31 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | ETALON OR | 4.3% | 23.53 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | SUPREME WINNER | 2.7% | 36.76 | 13 |
| 9 | 6 | ANGELIC | 2.7% | 37.61 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | CONCORDE STAR | 2.2% | 45.46 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SKYEY BLUE | 1.4% | 72.72 | 8 |
| 12 | 9 | WORLD HERO | 1.4% | 72.98 | 7 |
| 13 | 12 | SMART ZIPANG | 0.8% | 122.88 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 48.5
PLACE
3 43
4 19
8 57
QUINELLA
4,8 609
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 119
3,8 391
4,8 167
FORECAST
4,8 1,050
TIERCE
4,8,3 12,090
TRIO
3,4,8 2,409
FIRST 4
3,4,6,8 13,520
QUARTET
4,8,3,6 248,980
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,7/3,4,8 86,943
3RD DOUBLE
7/4 1,643.5
7/8 924.5