沙田 · 2024-10-06 · 09:55
第 10場
2024-10-06沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1650米。由K C Leung策騎、F C Lor訓練的SWORD POINT勝出，贏出3-3/4。ADEFILL獲得亞軍；TURIN MASCOT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.3倍大熱門ADEFILL跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SWORD POINT 後段發力 CP 1.37.94 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 6 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | ADEFILL 後段發力 B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 10 | 4.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 13 | TURIN MASCOT 後段發力 PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 9 | 8.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | TELECOM FIGHTERS P N Wong · Y S Tsui | P N Wong | Y S Tsui | 13 | 42.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | CHILL CHIBI 後段發力 B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 7 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | APACHE PASS BO-/XB-/CP1/TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 5 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | RED HARE KING TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 4 | 9.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | CAPITAL DELIGHT 後段發力 TT B Thompson · C Fownes | B Thompson | C Fownes | 3 | 6.4 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | BERLIN TANGO B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 1 | 12.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING GENERATION 後段發力 PC Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 11 | 8.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | THE BEST PEACH TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 39.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 早段領放 B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 8 | 22.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | MOMENTS IN TIME TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 12 | 14.0 | 51-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CAPITAL DELIGHT | 16.4% | 6.10 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | MOMENTS IN TIME | 14.2% | 7.04 | 13 |
| 3 | 7 | CHILL CHIBI | 10.2% | 9.79 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | ADEFILL | 8.4% | 11.87 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | RED HARE KING | 8.1% | 12.27 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | KA YING GENERATION | 8.0% | 12.54 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | APACHE PASS | 7.6% | 13.21 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | BERLIN TANGO | 7.0% | 14.23 | 9 |
| 9 | 13 | TURIN MASCOT | 6.7% | 14.83 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | THE BEST PEACH | 4.9% | 20.25 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | SWORD POINT | 3.4% | 29.24 | 1 |
| 12 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 2.6% | 38.43 | 12 |
| 13 | 4 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 2.3% | 42.88 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 141
PLACE
2 54
5 19
13 27.5
QUINELLA
2,5 484.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 174
2,13 214.5
5,13 75
FORECAST
2,5 899
TIERCE
2,5,13 7,350
TRIO
2,5,13 1,231
FIRST 4
2,4,5,13 9,847
QUARTET
2,5,13,4 274,544
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND TREBLE
5/6/2 4,516
5/6/5 141
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,6/2,5,13 14,578
9TH DOUBLE
6/2 1,144
6/5 44.5
SIX UP
1/2/6/5/6/2 1,501,428
1,5/2,7/4,6/5,11/1,6/2,5 4,231
2 [H Bowman] —
14 [F C Lor] —