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Sha Tin · 2024-10-06 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 2 1650m 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-06 was Class 2 over 1650m. SWORD POINT, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 3-3/4, with ADEFILL second and TURIN MASCOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite ADEFILL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.37.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SWORD POINT Closed strongly CP 1.37.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 6 14.0 3-3/4
2 5 ADEFILL Closed strongly B K Teetan · P F Yiu 10 4.3 3-3/4
3 13 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 9 8.7 4-1/4
4 4 TELECOM FIGHTERS P N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 42.0 5-1/4
5 7 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 7 10.0 5-1/4
6 12 APACHE PASS BO-/XB-/CP1/TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 5 14.0 5-1/4
7 10 RED HARE KING TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 9.6 5-1/2
7 11 CAPITAL DELIGHT Closed strongly TT B Thompson · C Fownes 3 6.4 5-1/2
9 8 BERLIN TANGO B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 12.0 7-1/4
10 9 KA YING GENERATION Closed strongly PC Z Purton · P C Ng 11 8.0 8
11 6 THE BEST PEACH TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 39.0 10-1/2
12 3 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 8 22.0 11-1/2
13 1 MOMENTS IN TIME TT H Bowman · C S Shum 12 14.0 51-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWORD POINT2. ADEFILL+3.75L3. TURIN MASCOT+4.25L4. TELECOM FIGHTERS+5.25L5. CHILL CHIBI+5.25L6. APACHE PASS+5.25L7. RED HARE KING+5.5L7. CAPITAL DELIGHT+5.5L9. BERLIN TANGO+7.25L10. KA YING GENERATION+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CAPITAL DELIGHT (16.4%) finished 7th — the winner SWORD POINT was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CAPITAL DELIGHT 16.4% 6.10 7
2 1 MOMENTS IN TIME 14.2% 7.04 13
3 7 CHILL CHIBI 10.2% 9.79 5
4 5 ADEFILL 8.4% 11.87 2
5 10 RED HARE KING 8.1% 12.27 7
6 9 KA YING GENERATION 8.0% 12.54 10
7 12 APACHE PASS 7.6% 13.21 6
8 8 BERLIN TANGO 7.0% 14.23 9
9 13 TURIN MASCOT 6.7% 14.83 3
10 6 THE BEST PEACH 4.9% 20.25 11
11 2 SWORD POINT 3.4% 29.24 1
12 3 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 2.6% 38.43 12
13 4 TELECOM FIGHTERS 2.3% 42.88 4
CAPITAL DELIGHTMOMENTS IN TIMECHILL CHIBIADEFILLRED HARE KINGKA YING GENERATIONAPACHE PASSBERLIN TANGOTURIN MASCOTTHE BEST PEACHSWORD POINT — wonALL FOR ST PAUL'STELECOM FIGHTERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 141

PLACE

2 54

5 19

13 27.5

QUINELLA

2,5 484.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 174

2,13 214.5

5,13 75

FORECAST

2,5 899

TIERCE

2,5,13 7,350

TRIO

2,5,13 1,231

FIRST 4

2,4,5,13 9,847

QUARTET

2,5,13,4 274,544

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/6/2 4,516

5/6/5 141

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,6/2,5,13 14,578

9TH DOUBLE

6/2 1,144

6/5 44.5

SIX UP

1/2/6/5/6/2 1,501,428

1,5/2,7/4,6/5,11/1,6/2,5 4,231

2 [H Bowman]

14 [F C Lor]