Sha Tin · 2024-10-06 · 15:50
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-06 was Class 4 over 1400m. AEROINVINCIBLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with MARKWIN second and GALLANT CROWN third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AEROINVINCIBLE Wire to wire SR/TT 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 2 | 2.4 | N |
| 2 | 7 | MARKWIN Closed strongly TT1 K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 18.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | GALLANT CROWN B-/CP1/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 6 | 8.6 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | ALP'S AFFECTION V/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 76.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | SOLID WIN Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 10 | 4.9 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | CIRCUIT FIERY TT1 A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 5 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | FLYING LUCK TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 7 | 6.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | SMASHING EXPRESS E B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 113.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | DREAM PURSUER B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 3 | 29.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 11 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | GOLDEN SAMURAI B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 14.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | HARMONY GALAXY TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 12 | 60.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 28.8% | 3.48 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | SOLID WIN | 15.2% | 6.58 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | FLYING LUCK | 14.7% | 6.78 | 7 |
| 4 | 12 | PERFECT PEACH | 13.0% | 7.71 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | GALLANT CROWN | 6.1% | 16.52 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | GOLDEN SAMURAI | 5.5% | 18.28 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | CIRCUIT FIERY | 4.4% | 22.77 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | DREAM PURSUER | 4.2% | 23.79 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | MARKWIN | 3.2% | 31.36 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | HARMONY GALAXY | 2.6% | 37.86 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 1.9% | 52.02 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | ALP'S AFFECTION | 0.5% | 219.20 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 24.5
PLACE
2 13.5
7 53
11 27
QUINELLA
2,7 200
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 80
2,11 48
7,11 231.5
FORECAST
2,7 340
TIERCE
2,7,11 2,502
TRIO
2,7,11 665
FIRST 4
2,7,10,11 9,772
QUARTET
2,7,11,10 86,015
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,8/2,7,11 56,884
5TH DOUBLE
1/2 139.5
1/7 88
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,11/1,5,8/Any Combination 25,065