Sha Tin · 2024-10-06 · 13:01
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly B2/TT 1.47.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 2 | 2.6 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | FRUITY WARRIOR TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 7 | 6.1 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly B C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 5 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | COLOURFUL BARON Led early B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 7.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | GOLDEN FAIRY A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 9 | 26.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 10 | 41.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | LEATHER MASTER B A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 6 | 31.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 11 | 32.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | FURY AND GOLD B1/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 8 | 9.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 3 | 6.8 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | KINGLY DEMEANOR H1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 12-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-06 was Class 5 over 1800m. JOYFUL PROSPERITY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 3, with FRUITY WARRIOR second and CHATEAU LE PECHE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 37.1% | 2.69 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 15.3% | 6.53 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 11.8% | 8.46 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 8.0% | 12.46 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | COLOURFUL BARON | 7.3% | 13.73 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | FURY AND GOLD | 4.8% | 20.70 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | SUNNY BABY | 4.3% | 23.51 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 3.7% | 27.25 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | LEATHER MASTER | 2.7% | 37.49 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | SPLENDID STAR | 2.5% | 39.83 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 2.5% | 39.89 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 26
PLACE
1 13.5
3 37.5
4 19.5
QUINELLA
1,4 73.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 71.5
1,4 32.5
3,4 136
FORECAST
1,4 142
TIERCE
1,4,3 1,210
TRIO
1,3,4 340
FIRST 4
1,3,4,7 467
QUARTET
1,4,3,7 6,713