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Sha Tin · 2024-10-06 · 14:25

Race 4

Class 4 1000m Course A 11 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-06 was Class 4 over 1000m. MASTER TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with SPICY SPANGLE second and METRO WARRIOR third. The 1.9 favourite METRO WARRIOR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MASTER TRILLION CP1 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 6 10.0 1
2 11 SPICY SPANGLE TT P N Wong · P C Ng 3 41.0 1
3 1 METRO WARRIOR B E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 1.9 2-3/4
4 7 ALMIGHTY KICK XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 25.0 3-1/2
5 10 HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 4 11.0 3-3/4
6 3 BRILLIANT FIRE H1/XB1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 8 15.0 5
7 4 KA YING POWER B-/H-/TT- C L Chau · T P Yung 2 33.0 5-1/2
8 9 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 7.6 7-1/4
9 8 INVINCIBLE DELIGHT H1 A Badel · J Size 11 33.0 7-1/4
10 6 DASH AVENUE B-/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 1 36.0 13-1/2
11 12 GUSTY FIGHTER CP1/TT K Teetan · J Richards 10 6.6 13-3/4
2 ACE VICTORY K H Chan · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER TRILLION2. SPICY SPANGLE+1L3. METRO WARRIOR+2.75L4. ALMIGHTY KICK+3.5L5. HAPPY HORSE+3.75L6. BRILLIANT FIRE+5L7. KA YING POWER+5.5L8. VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE+7.25L9. INVINCIBLE DELIGHT+7.25L10. DASH AVENUE+13.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick METRO WARRIOR (22.9%) finished 3rd — the winner MASTER TRILLION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 METRO WARRIOR 22.9% 4.37 3
2 5 MASTER TRILLION 14.6% 6.86 1
3 3 BRILLIANT FIRE 13.3% 7.54 6
4 10 HAPPY HORSE 12.4% 8.06 5
5 9 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE 8.7% 11.45 8
6 12 GUSTY FIGHTER 7.6% 13.17 11
7 8 INVINCIBLE DELIGHT 5.7% 17.40 9
8 6 DASH AVENUE 5.5% 18.05 10
9 4 KA YING POWER 4.2% 23.84 7
10 11 SPICY SPANGLE 2.7% 37.07 2
11 7 ALMIGHTY KICK 2.3% 42.61 4
METRO WARRIORMASTER TRILLION — wonBRILLIANT FIREHAPPY HORSEVICTORYTHIRTYTHREEGUSTY FIGHTERINVINCIBLE DELIGHTDASH AVENUEKA YING POWERSPICY SPANGLEALMIGHTY KICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 104

PLACE

1 11

5 32.5

11 82

QUINELLA

5,11 2,357.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 47.5

1,11 101

5,11 541.5

FORECAST

5,11 3,541

TIERCE

5,11,1 13,341

TRIO

1,5,11 1,236

FIRST 4

1,5,7,11 3,277

QUARTET

5,11,1,7 108,812

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,9/1,5,11 19,998

3RD DOUBLE

8/5 419

8/11 378.5