沙田 · 2024-10-13 · 06:20
第 4場
2024-10-13沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1400米。由Z Purton策騎、D J Hall訓練的CHARMANDER勝出，贏出SH。YODA'S CHOICE獲得亞軍；SUPER WISE DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHARMANDER 後段發力 V 1.22.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 3.4 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | YODA'S CHOICE 後段發力 CP/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 14 | 13.0 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | SUPER WISE DRAGON 後段發力 XB-/CP1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 17.0 | N |
| 4 | 8 | YOUTH POWER B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 6 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | NOBLE WIN 後段發力 XB/B1/TT H Bentley · D Eustace | H Bentley | D Eustace | 11 | 23.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 9 | 26.0 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | JOYFUL LIFE 後段發力 TT H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 13 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | CHEER FOR SOUTH V C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 1 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | FIRE BALL CP Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 10 | 36.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | WINNING SEVEN 後段發力 CP-/XB-/B2/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 7 | 57.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | SO AWESOME B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 12 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | MEDIC ELITE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 5 | 7.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | BEAT HOLLOW 早段領放 P N Wong · Y S Tsui | P N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 14 | 9 | ASIAN ONE PC-/XB/B2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 3 | 64.0 | 6-1/4 |
| — | 0 | CHILLI BABA · P F Yiu | — | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHARMANDER | 41.1% | 2.43 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | JOYFUL LIFE | 16.6% | 6.04 | 7 |
| 3 | 13 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 9.3% | 10.77 | 8 |
| 4 | 14 | MEDIC ELITE | 5.4% | 18.59 | 12 |
| 5 | 12 | BEAT HOLLOW | 4.7% | 21.19 | 13 |
| 6 | 3 | YODA'S CHOICE | 4.5% | 22.11 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | NOBLE WIN | 3.9% | 25.65 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | ASIAN ONE | 2.8% | 36.23 | 14 |
| 9 | 8 | YOUTH POWER | 2.5% | 39.56 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | SUPER WISE DRAGON | 2.4% | 42.16 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | WINNING SEVEN | 1.9% | 52.03 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | FIRE BALL | 1.9% | 52.56 | 9 |
| 13 | 5 | SO AWESOME | 1.7% | 57.85 | 11 |
| 14 | 10 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER | 1.3% | 74.59 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 34.5
PLACE
2 55
3 40.5
6 17
QUINELLA
3,6 257
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 391
2,6 115
3,6 96.5
FORECAST
6,3 414
TIERCE
6,3,2 6,199
TRIO
2,3,6 1,607
FIRST 4
2,3,6,8 3,336
QUARTET
6,3,2,8 58,756
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,7/2,3,6 80,860
3RD DOUBLE
5/3 567
5/6 1,196.5