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Sha Tin · 2024-10-13 · 06:20

Race 4

Class 5 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-13 was Class 5 over 1400m. CHARMANDER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with YODA'S CHOICE second and SUPER WISE DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CHARMANDER Closed strongly V 1.22.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 2 3.4 SH
2 3 YODA'S CHOICE Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 14 13.0 SH
3 2 SUPER WISE DRAGON Closed strongly XB-/CP1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 17.0 N
4 8 YOUTH POWER B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 14.0 1/2
5 4 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly XB/B1/TT H Bentley · D Eustace 11 23.0 3/4
6 10 MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT K De Melo · W Y So 9 26.0 1
7 1 JOYFUL LIFE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 13 4.1 2
8 13 CHEER FOR SOUTH V C L Chau · F C Lor 1 16.0 2-1/4
9 11 FIRE BALL CP Y L Chung · C H Yip 10 36.0 2-1/2
10 7 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly CP-/XB-/B2/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 57.0 2-1/2
11 5 SO AWESOME B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man 12 14.0 2-3/4
12 14 MEDIC ELITE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 5 7.0 2-3/4
13 12 BEAT HOLLOW Led early P N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 16.0 4
14 9 ASIAN ONE PC-/XB/B2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 3 64.0 6-1/4
0 CHILLI BABA · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARMANDER2. YODA'S CHOICE+0.1L3. SUPER WISE DRAGON+0.05L4. YOUTH POWER+0.5L5. NOBLE WIN+0.75L6. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+1L7. JOYFUL LIFE+2L8. CHEER FOR SOUTH+2.25L9. FIRE BALL+2.5L10. WINNING SEVEN+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CHARMANDER (41.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 CHARMANDER 41.1% 2.43 1
2 1 JOYFUL LIFE 16.6% 6.04 7
3 13 CHEER FOR SOUTH 9.3% 10.77 8
4 14 MEDIC ELITE 5.4% 18.59 12
5 12 BEAT HOLLOW 4.7% 21.19 13
6 3 YODA'S CHOICE 4.5% 22.11 2
7 4 NOBLE WIN 3.9% 25.65 5
8 9 ASIAN ONE 2.8% 36.23 14
9 8 YOUTH POWER 2.5% 39.56 4
10 2 SUPER WISE DRAGON 2.4% 42.16 3
11 7 WINNING SEVEN 1.9% 52.03 10
12 11 FIRE BALL 1.9% 52.56 9
13 5 SO AWESOME 1.7% 57.85 11
14 10 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 1.3% 74.59 6
CHARMANDER — wonJOYFUL LIFECHEER FOR SOUTHMEDIC ELITEBEAT HOLLOWYODA'S CHOICENOBLE WINASIAN ONEYOUTH POWERSUPER WISE DRAGONWINNING SEVENFIRE BALLSO AWESOMEMANYTHANKS FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 34.5

PLACE

2 55

3 40.5

6 17

QUINELLA

3,6 257

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 391

2,6 115

3,6 96.5

FORECAST

6,3 414

TIERCE

6,3,2 6,199

TRIO

2,3,6 1,607

FIRST 4

2,3,6,8 3,336

QUARTET

6,3,2,8 58,756

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,7/2,3,6 80,860

3RD DOUBLE

5/3 567

5/6 1,196.5