Sha Tin · 2024-10-13 · 07:45
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-13 was Class 4 over 1600m. FAMILY JEWEL, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with CHATER GOLD second and CALIFORNIATOTALITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FAMILY JEWEL Closed strongly TT 1.34.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 8 | 2.6 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 14 | CHATER GOLD Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 11 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly V-/B2/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 13 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | COMING PATCH Closed strongly C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 12 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | DEVAS TWELVE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 14 | 9.6 | 3 |
| 6 | 13 | SOARING BRONCO M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 5 | 4.1 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 3 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | SATIRICAL GLORY Led early SR/XB L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 7 | 9.9 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | PRINCIPLED Closed strongly CP-/B1/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 10 | 166.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | MIDORI BURLY CP/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 2 | 24.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 3 | PHANTOM CYCLONE V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 135.0 | 18-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | ACCOLADE START B/TT K De Melo · C S Shum | K De Melo | C S Shum | 9 | 113.0 | 20-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | TRUE GENIUS H/SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 46.0 | 20-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | GALLANT HERO B L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 6 | 81.0 | 21 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DEVAS TWELVE | 19.6% | 5.09 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | FAMILY JEWEL | 18.8% | 5.32 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | SOARING BRONCO | 12.7% | 7.86 | 6 |
| 4 | 14 | CHATER GOLD | 10.5% | 9.48 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | MIDORI BURLY | 8.2% | 12.27 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | DARCI JOY | 5.8% | 17.27 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | SATIRICAL GLORY | 5.3% | 18.77 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY | 3.7% | 26.80 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | GALLANT HERO | 3.6% | 27.48 | 14 |
| 10 | 6 | ACCOLADE START | 3.2% | 31.62 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | COMING PATCH | 3.1% | 31.85 | 4 |
| 12 | 1 | TRUE GENIUS | 3.0% | 33.13 | 13 |
| 13 | 3 | PHANTOM CYCLONE | 1.2% | 82.43 | 11 |
| 14 | 7 | PRINCIPLED | 1.1% | 91.03 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 26
PLACE
2 30
5 14.5
14 27
QUINELLA
5,14 142.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 62.5
2,14 145
5,14 55
FORECAST
5,14 165
TIERCE
5,14,2 1,613
TRIO
2,5,14 475
FIRST 4
2,5,8,14 2,029
QUARTET
5,14,2,8 20,338
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/2,5,14 10,317
5TH DOUBLE
1/5 208.5
1/14 94.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,3,6/1,3,11/2,5,14 2,364,887
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,3,6/1,3,11/Any Combination 3,665