Sha Tin · 2024-10-13 · 06:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-13 was Class 4 over 1200m. PATCH OF COSMO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with JUNEAU PRIDE second and CIRCUIT JOLLY third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF COSMO B 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 8 | 2.7 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | JUNEAU PRIDE B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 12 | 12.0 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | CIRCUIT JOLLY Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 5 | 8.8 | N |
| 4 | 8 | KA YING ATTACK M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 52.0 | N |
| 5 | 6 | ETALON OR B A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 13 | 5.3 | N |
| 6 | 9 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL H Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 10 | 5.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | TOP TIME K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 9 | 112.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | CASHISCASH XB/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 11 | 54.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | CONCORDE STAR TT K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 54.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | SMILING EMPEROR B H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 7 | 114.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | SANTORINI CP H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 1 | 7.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | RUN YES RUN CP M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | BABY SATELLITE B1/TT1 A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 6 | 98.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SANTORINI | 22.6% | 4.42 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | CIRCUIT JOLLY | 22.6% | 4.43 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | RUN YES RUN | 12.3% | 8.14 | 12 |
| 4 | 1 | PATCH OF COSMO | 11.9% | 8.40 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL | 6.6% | 15.05 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | JUNEAU PRIDE | 5.1% | 19.58 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | KA YING ATTACK | 4.7% | 21.08 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | ETALON OR | 4.0% | 24.72 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | TOP TIME | 2.5% | 40.59 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | BABY SATELLITE | 2.4% | 41.07 | 13 |
| 11 | 11 | CASHISCASH | 2.3% | 42.56 | 8 |
| 12 | 13 | CONCORDE STAR | 1.6% | 62.14 | 9 |
| 13 | 12 | SMILING EMPEROR | 1.2% | 83.06 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 27.5
PLACE
1 12.5
5 30
7 37.5
QUINELLA
1,7 159.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 52.5
1,7 66
5,7 164
FORECAST
1,7 247
TIERCE
1,7,5 1,416
TRIO
1,5,7 330
FIRST 4
1,5,7,8 2,731
QUARTET
1,7,5,8 28,530