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Sha Tin · 2024-10-13 · 08:50

Race 8

Class 4 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-13 was Class 4 over 1400m. STELLAR SWIFT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with JUBILANT WINNER second and DRAGON FOUR SEAS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 STELLAR SWIFT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D A Hayes 5 3.6 N
2 7 JUBILANT WINNER Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · J Richards 4 4.7 N
3 10 DRAGON FOUR SEAS Led early B K C Leung · K L Man 13 9.7 1-1/4
4 8 DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly XB/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 1 20.0 2-1/4
5 12 STRATHPEFFER B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 12 16.0 3-1/4
6 9 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 8 9.2 3-1/4
7 11 TEAM HAPPY B Y L Chung · P C Ng 7 7.7 3-1/4
8 3 I AM THE BOSS CP/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui 2 106.0 4-3/4
9 2 SUNNY DA BEST TT A Atzeni · W Y So 9 6.3 5
10 6 RED ACLAIM Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · J Size 3 72.0 6
11 13 EVER SMART H1/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 14 52.0 6-1/4
12 4 LIGHTNING BOLT TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 124.0 6-1/4
13 5 CELTIC TIMES B/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 6 27.0 7-3/4
14 14 MR GOOD VIBES B A Badel · D J Hall 11 38.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STELLAR SWIFT2. JUBILANT WINNER+0.05L3. DRAGON FOUR SEAS+1.25L4. DOUBLE WIN+2.25L5. STRATHPEFFER+3.25L6. HAPPY DAILY+3.25L7. TEAM HAPPY+3.25L8. I AM THE BOSS+4.75L9. SUNNY DA BEST+5L10. RED ACLAIM+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TEAM HAPPY (15.3%) finished 7th — the winner STELLAR SWIFT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 TEAM HAPPY 15.3% 6.55 7
2 1 STELLAR SWIFT 13.7% 7.30 1
3 7 JUBILANT WINNER 12.7% 7.90 2
4 12 STRATHPEFFER 11.2% 8.92 5
5 2 SUNNY DA BEST 11.2% 8.95 9
6 10 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 7.5% 13.25 3
7 9 HAPPY DAILY 6.6% 15.23 6
8 14 MR GOOD VIBES 4.3% 23.48 14
9 5 CELTIC TIMES 4.2% 23.54 13
10 8 DOUBLE WIN 3.8% 26.53 4
11 13 EVER SMART 3.5% 28.42 11
12 4 LIGHTNING BOLT 2.2% 44.66 12
13 6 RED ACLAIM 2.2% 46.02 10
14 3 I AM THE BOSS 1.7% 59.68 8
TEAM HAPPYSTELLAR SWIFT — wonJUBILANT WINNERSTRATHPEFFERSUNNY DA BESTDRAGON FOUR SEASHAPPY DAILYMR GOOD VIBESCELTIC TIMESDOUBLE WINEVER SMARTLIGHTNING BOLTRED ACLAIMI AM THE BOSS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 36.5

PLACE

1 16.5

7 20.5

10 29

QUINELLA

1,7 86.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 33.5

1,10 66.5

7,10 75.5

FORECAST

1,7 122

TIERCE

1,7,10 553

TRIO

1,7,10 150

FIRST 4

1,7,8,10 1,288

QUARTET

1,7,10,8 12,207

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/1,7,10 3,168

7TH DOUBLE

4/1 62

4/7 17.5