Sha Tin · 2024-10-13 · 05:45
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-13 was Class 3 over 2000m. WINNING DRAGON, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with EIGHTEEN CARAT second and AWESOME FLUKE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite ENSUED finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WINNING DRAGON Wire to wire TT 2.01.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 15.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | EIGHTEEN CARAT Closed strongly B/TT1 A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 5.5 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | AWESOME FLUKE P/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 6 | 4.4 | SH |
| 4 | 1 | ENSUED Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 5 | 2.3 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly B/SR/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 2 | 5.6 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly CP-/TT Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 9 | 57.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE B M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 8 | 62.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | UNIVERSAL HORIZON B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 24.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | PACKING HURRICANE B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 4 | 17.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUPREME AGILITY | 27.1% | 3.68 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | ENSUED | 21.7% | 4.60 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | EIGHTEEN CARAT | 11.0% | 9.10 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | AWESOME FLUKE | 9.6% | 10.43 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | WINNING DRAGON | 8.1% | 12.27 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | UNIVERSAL HORIZON | 7.0% | 14.20 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | PACKING HURRICANE | 6.9% | 14.53 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 5.6% | 17.84 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | BEAUTY LIVE | 2.9% | 34.74 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 159
PLACE
2 14
5 37
7 18.5
QUINELLA
5,7 450.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 103
2,7 48.5
5,7 109
FORECAST
5,7 963
TIERCE
5,7,2 4,995
TRIO
2,5,7 654
FIRST 4
1,2,5,7 244
QUARTET
5,7,2,1 13,152
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/5 723.5
5/7 60