沙田 · 2024-12-15 · 06:40
第 4場
2024-12-15沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1000米。由J McDonald策騎、J Size訓練的GRAND NOVA勝出，贏出N。CIRCUIT JOLLY獲得亞軍；SUMMIT CHEERS獲得季軍。3.4倍大熱門CIRCUIT JOLLY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GRAND NOVA E 0.56.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 11 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 6 | CIRCUIT JOLLY B1 Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 13 | 3.4 | N |
| 3 | 1 | SUMMIT CHEERS B/TT A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 10 | 32.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | FUN ELITE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 9 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | RIDING HIGH TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 14 | 29.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | SNOWTHORN TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 8 | 6.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SHINY RAPIDASH B A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 7 | 62.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | LOVING VIBES CP-/H K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 4 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY SR/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 6 | 56.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | LOADED WITH FLUKE CP1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 12 | 89.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | POLARIS B/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 2 | 23.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | FLYING DRAGON A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | TALENTS SUPREMO V/TT A Pouchin · W K Mo | A Pouchin | W K Mo | 1 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 7 | HAPPY SHOOTER XB1/TT1 M L Yeung · C S Shum | M L Yeung | C S Shum | 5 | 9.3 | 10 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CIRCUIT JOLLY | 20.9% | 4.78 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | GRAND NOVA | 13.7% | 7.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | FUN ELITE | 13.6% | 7.33 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | HAPPY SHOOTER | 8.5% | 11.78 | 14 |
| 5 | 10 | SNOWTHORN | 7.9% | 12.69 | 6 |
| 6 | 13 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 7.3% | 13.70 | 13 |
| 7 | 2 | POLARIS | 5.0% | 20.02 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | SUMMIT CHEERS | 5.0% | 20.03 | 3 |
| 9 | 14 | FLYING DRAGON | 4.5% | 22.07 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY | 3.9% | 25.63 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | SHINY RAPIDASH | 2.8% | 35.38 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | LOVING VIBES | 2.8% | 35.87 | 8 |
| 13 | 5 | RIDING HIGH | 2.4% | 41.94 | 5 |
| 14 | 8 | LOADED WITH FLUKE | 1.6% | 61.07 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 56
PLACE
1 97
4 19.5
6 15.5
QUINELLA
4,6 103.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 261.5
1,6 232.5
4,6 44.5
FORECAST
4,6 246
TIERCE
4,6,1 3,926
TRIO
1,4,6 453
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 892
QUARTET
4,6,1,3 20,168
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,10/1,4,6 36,439
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 248.5
1/6 23.5