Sha Tin · 2024-12-15 · 06:40
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-15 was Class 4 over 1000m. GRAND NOVA, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Size, won by N, with CIRCUIT JOLLY second and SUMMIT CHEERS third. The 3.4 favourite CIRCUIT JOLLY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GRAND NOVA E 0.56.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 11 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 6 | CIRCUIT JOLLY B1 Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 13 | 3.4 | N |
| 3 | 1 | SUMMIT CHEERS B/TT A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 10 | 32.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | FUN ELITE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 9 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | RIDING HIGH TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 14 | 29.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | SNOWTHORN TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 8 | 6.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SHINY RAPIDASH B A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 7 | 62.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | LOVING VIBES CP-/H K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 4 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY SR/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 6 | 56.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | LOADED WITH FLUKE CP1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 12 | 89.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | POLARIS B/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 2 | 23.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | FLYING DRAGON A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 3 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | TALENTS SUPREMO V/TT A Pouchin · W K Mo | A Pouchin | W K Mo | 1 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 7 | HAPPY SHOOTER XB1/TT1 M L Yeung · C S Shum | M L Yeung | C S Shum | 5 | 9.3 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CIRCUIT JOLLY | 20.9% | 4.78 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | GRAND NOVA | 13.7% | 7.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | FUN ELITE | 13.6% | 7.33 | 4 |
| 4 | 7 | HAPPY SHOOTER | 8.5% | 11.78 | 14 |
| 5 | 10 | SNOWTHORN | 7.9% | 12.69 | 6 |
| 6 | 13 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 7.3% | 13.70 | 13 |
| 7 | 2 | POLARIS | 5.0% | 20.02 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | SUMMIT CHEERS | 5.0% | 20.03 | 3 |
| 9 | 14 | FLYING DRAGON | 4.5% | 22.07 | 12 |
| 10 | 11 | GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY | 3.9% | 25.63 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | SHINY RAPIDASH | 2.8% | 35.38 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | LOVING VIBES | 2.8% | 35.87 | 8 |
| 13 | 5 | RIDING HIGH | 2.4% | 41.94 | 5 |
| 14 | 8 | LOADED WITH FLUKE | 1.6% | 61.07 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 56
PLACE
1 97
4 19.5
6 15.5
QUINELLA
4,6 103.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 261.5
1,6 232.5
4,6 44.5
FORECAST
4,6 246
TIERCE
4,6,1 3,926
TRIO
1,4,6 453
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 892
QUARTET
4,6,1,3 20,168
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,10/1,4,6 36,439
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 248.5
1/6 23.5