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Sha Tin · 2024-12-15 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-15 was Class 4 over 1200m. TRIUMPHANT MORE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with NEWBORN MIRACLE second and KING OBERON third. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 TRIUMPHANT MORE B 1.10.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 8 4.1 1/2
2 5 NEWBORN MIRACLE TT C L Chau · P F Yiu 1 9.8 1/2
3 10 KING OBERON B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 8.1 2
4 2 ELEGANT LIFE CP H Bowman · T P Yung 11 33.0 2-1/2
5 6 ORIENTAL SURPRISE CP- B Thompson · D A Hayes 9 139.0 3-1/4
6 7 HE WAS YOU TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 6.5 3-1/4
7 3 COLOURFUL WINNER CP M L Yeung · W Y So 12 5.4 3-1/2
8 11 VANTASTIC CHOICE A Pouchin · C H Yip 2 7.3 4
9 8 TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham 7 7.5 4-1/2
10 4 COSMIC SPURS PC-/B1/TT K Teetan · J Size 5 19.0 5
10 12 CURRAHEE CP/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 28.0 5
12 9 SKY SONG TT K De Melo · C Fownes 10 70.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRIUMPHANT MORE2. NEWBORN MIRACLE+0.5L3. KING OBERON+2L4. ELEGANT LIFE+2.5L5. ORIENTAL SURPRISE+3.25L6. HE WAS YOU+3.25L7. COLOURFUL WINNER+3.5L8. VANTASTIC CHOICE+4L9. TACTICAL COMMAND+4.5L10. COSMIC SPURS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TRIUMPHANT MORE (21.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TRIUMPHANT MORE 21.2% 4.71 1
2 5 NEWBORN MIRACLE 14.8% 6.77 2
3 3 COLOURFUL WINNER 12.8% 7.79 7
4 11 VANTASTIC CHOICE 9.2% 10.88 8
5 7 HE WAS YOU 8.4% 11.92 6
6 8 TACTICAL COMMAND 8.2% 12.24 9
7 9 SKY SONG 7.6% 13.11 12
8 10 KING OBERON 5.7% 17.66 3
9 12 CURRAHEE 4.9% 20.23 10
10 2 ELEGANT LIFE 3.9% 25.62 4
11 4 COSMIC SPURS 2.0% 50.98 10
12 6 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 1.3% 76.90 5
TRIUMPHANT MORE — wonNEWBORN MIRACLECOLOURFUL WINNERVANTASTIC CHOICEHE WAS YOUTACTICAL COMMANDSKY SONGKING OBERONCURRAHEEELEGANT LIFECOSMIC SPURSORIENTAL SURPRISE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 41

PLACE

1 18

5 32.5

10 26.5

QUINELLA

1,5 269

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 96

1,10 73.5

5,10 128.5

FORECAST

1,5 430

TIERCE

1,5,10 3,177

TRIO

1,5,10 658

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 3,250

QUARTET

1,5,10,2 42,425

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/1 737.5

11/5 117.5