Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-12-15 · 07:45

Race 6

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-15 was Class 4 over 1400m. NEW FUTURE FOLKS, ridden by B Thompson and trained by C W Chang, won by 2-1/2, with THE HEIR second and BALLISTIC WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite BALLISTIC WIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 NEW FUTURE FOLKS Closed strongly B- 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · C W Chang 3 5.6 2-1/2
2 2 THE HEIR Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 9.3 2-1/2
3 1 BALLISTIC WIN Closed strongly CP/H J McDonald · T P Yung 6 3.0 3-1/4
4 7 AMAZING RUN Closed strongly B2/TT2 H Bowman · D A Hayes 13 6.0 3-3/4
5 6 RUN RAN RUN B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 7 78.0 4-1/2
6 8 LAKESHORE HERO Led early B- L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 23.0 4-1/2
7 3 YUEN LONG ELITE Closed strongly TT1 Z Purton · K L Man 11 5.5 5
8 13 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS Closed strongly XB/TT A Pouchin · C S Shum 1 15.0 5-1/2
9 5 MOTOMAN TT L Hewitson · P C Ng 12 80.0 6-1/4
10 9 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly CP/XB H Bentley · K H Ting 9 18.0 7-1/4
11 12 WISDOM STAR B/TT K Teetan · J Richards 8 137.0 8
12 14 SPEED SWORD TT M F Poon · M Newnham 5 92.0 8-1/4
13 11 LUCKY GOLD B C L Chau · K W Lui 14 49.0 11-1/4
14 10 CALIFORNIA STAR B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 45.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW FUTURE FOLKS2. THE HEIR+2.5L3. BALLISTIC WIN+3.25L4. AMAZING RUN+3.75L5. RUN RAN RUN+4.5L6. LAKESHORE HERO+4.5L7. YUEN LONG ELITE+5L8. CIRCUIT MAXIMUS+5.5L9. MOTOMAN+6.25L10. SMILING COLLECTOR+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NEW FUTURE FOLKS (17.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 NEW FUTURE FOLKS 17.6% 5.68 1
2 3 YUEN LONG ELITE 14.9% 6.71 7
3 1 BALLISTIC WIN 13.1% 7.61 3
4 7 AMAZING RUN 10.9% 9.14 4
5 9 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.9% 10.08 10
6 2 THE HEIR 8.8% 11.42 2
7 8 LAKESHORE HERO 4.4% 22.51 6
8 10 CALIFORNIA STAR 4.2% 23.79 14
9 14 SPEED SWORD 3.7% 27.16 12
10 5 MOTOMAN 3.0% 33.53 9
11 12 WISDOM STAR 2.7% 37.09 11
12 11 LUCKY GOLD 2.6% 38.53 13
13 13 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS 2.4% 40.94 8
14 6 RUN RAN RUN 1.7% 59.93 5
NEW FUTURE FOLKS — wonYUEN LONG ELITEBALLISTIC WINAMAZING RUNSMILING COLLECTORTHE HEIRLAKESHORE HEROCALIFORNIA STARSPEED SWORDMOTOMANWISDOM STARLUCKY GOLDCIRCUIT MAXIMUSRUN RAN RUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 56.5

PLACE

1 14.5

2 26

4 18

QUINELLA

2,4 265

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 51.5

1,4 34.5

2,4 76.5

FORECAST

4,2 464

TIERCE

4,2,1 1,395

TRIO

1,2,4 200

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 272

QUARTET

4,2,1,7 8,649

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,11/1,2,4 2,152

5TH DOUBLE

11/2 64.5

11/4 229

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,6/4,8,11/1,2,4 61,876

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,6/4,8,11/Any Combination 824