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Sha Tin · 2024-12-15 · 05:35

Race 2

Class 5 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-15 was Class 5 over 1400m. HARRY'S HERO, ridden by A Pouchin and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FLYING PHANTOM second and THE KHAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite YODA'S CHOICE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H 1.22.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Pouchin · P F Yiu 7 14.0 1/2
2 7 FLYING PHANTOM Closed strongly H J McDonald · J Size 13 10.0 1/2
3 2 THE KHAN Closed strongly SR H Bowman · C Fownes 6 16.0 1-1/4
4 10 RATTAN WORLD Closed strongly PC-/TT K Teetan · J Richards 4 45.0 1-1/4
5 14 REGENCY HAPPY STAR B-/TT2 A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 6.3 1-1/2
6 4 SUPER CHARIZZARD Closed strongly PC L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 31.0 2-1/4
7 3 YODA'S CHOICE Led early CP/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 8 2.2 2-1/4
8 8 MULTIDARLING Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 9 111.0 3-1/2
9 6 LINK Closed strongly BO/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 14 37.0 4
10 1 MARIO B B Avdulla · D J Hall 2 31.0 5-1/4
11 9 HIGH RISE POWER Closed strongly CP1/TT- C Y Ho · C H Yip 11 72.0 6
12 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY TT M Chadwick · K L Man 5 10.0 8-3/4
13 13 LADY BILLIE H A Hamelin · W K Mo 10 64.0 9-1/2
14 5 AROMATICA TT H Bentley · W Y So 3 7.5 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARRY'S HERO2. FLYING PHANTOM+0.5L3. THE KHAN+1.25L4. RATTAN WORLD+1.25L5. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+1.5L6. SUPER CHARIZZARD+2.25L7. YODA'S CHOICE+2.25L8. MULTIDARLING+3.5L9. LINK+4L10. MARIO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YODA'S CHOICE (27.7%) finished 7th — the winner HARRY'S HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 YODA'S CHOICE 27.7% 3.61 7
2 11 HARRY'S HERO 10.0% 9.98 1
3 5 AROMATICA 9.7% 10.36 14
4 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY 9.0% 11.16 12
5 2 THE KHAN 7.0% 14.19 3
6 4 SUPER CHARIZZARD 6.3% 15.89 6
7 7 FLYING PHANTOM 5.7% 17.48 2
8 14 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 5.1% 19.51 5
9 9 HIGH RISE POWER 5.0% 20.00 11
10 10 RATTAN WORLD 4.1% 24.33 4
11 8 MULTIDARLING 3.7% 27.01 8
12 6 LINK 2.8% 35.48 9
13 1 MARIO 2.4% 41.88 10
14 13 LADY BILLIE 1.5% 68.67 13
YODA'S CHOICEHARRY'S HERO — wonAROMATICATSUEN WAN GLORYTHE KHANSUPER CHARIZZARDFLYING PHANTOMREGENCY HAPPY STARHIGH RISE POWERRATTAN WORLDMULTIDARLINGLINKMARIOLADY BILLIE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 142.5

PLACE

2 37

7 34.5

11 36

QUINELLA

7,11 857.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 236.5

2,11 232

7,11 216.5

FORECAST

11,7 1,646

TIERCE

11,7,2 14,888

TRIO

2,7,11 2,739

FIRST 4

2,7,10,11 22,975

QUARTET

11,7,2,10 319,820

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/7 221

12/11 694.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,12/2,7,11 175,945