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Sha Tin · 2024-12-15 · 13:33

Race 2

Class 5 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H 1.22.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Pouchin · P F Yiu 7 14.0 1/2
2 7 FLYING PHANTOM Closed strongly H J McDonald · J Size 13 10.0 1/2
3 2 THE KHAN Closed strongly SR H Bowman · C Fownes 6 16.0 1-1/4
4 10 RATTAN WORLD Closed strongly PC-/TT K Teetan · J Richards 4 45.0 1-1/4
5 14 REGENCY HAPPY STAR B-/TT2 A Atzeni · D Eustace 1 6.3 1-1/2
6 4 SUPER CHARIZZARD Closed strongly PC L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 31.0 2-1/4
7 3 YODA'S CHOICE Led early CP/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 8 2.2 2-1/4
8 8 MULTIDARLING Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 9 111.0 3-1/2
9 6 LINK Closed strongly BL/BO/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 14 37.0 4
10 1 MARIO B B Avdulla · D J Hall 2 31.0 5-1/4
11 9 HIGH RISE POWER Closed strongly CP1/TT- C Y Ho · C H Yip 11 72.0 6
12 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY TT M Chadwick · K L Man 5 10.0 8-3/4
13 13 LADY BILLIE H A Hamelin · W K Mo 10 64.0 9-1/2
14 5 AROMATICA TT H Bentley · W Y So 3 7.5 14

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-15 was Class 5 over 1400m. HARRY'S HERO, ridden by A Pouchin and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FLYING PHANTOM second and THE KHAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite YODA'S CHOICE finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARRY'S HERO—2. FLYING PHANTOM+0.5L3. THE KHAN+1.25L4. RATTAN WORLD+1.25L5. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+1.5L6. SUPER CHARIZZARD+2.25L7. YODA'S CHOICE+2.25L8. MULTIDARLING+3.5L9. LINK+4L10. MARIO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YODA'S CHOICE (27.7%) finished 7th — the winner HARRY'S HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 YODA'S CHOICE 27.7% 3.61 7
2 11 HARRY'S HERO 10.0% 9.98 1
3 5 AROMATICA 9.7% 10.36 14
4 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY 9.0% 11.16 12
5 2 THE KHAN 7.0% 14.19 3
6 4 SUPER CHARIZZARD 6.3% 15.89 6
7 7 FLYING PHANTOM 5.7% 17.48 2
8 14 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 5.1% 19.51 5
9 9 HIGH RISE POWER 5.0% 20.00 11
10 10 RATTAN WORLD 4.1% 24.33 4
11 8 MULTIDARLING 3.7% 27.01 8
12 6 LINK 2.8% 35.48 9
13 1 MARIO 2.4% 41.88 10
14 13 LADY BILLIE 1.5% 68.67 13
YODA'S CHOICEHARRY'S HERO — wonAROMATICATSUEN WAN GLORYTHE KHANSUPER CHARIZZARDFLYING PHANTOMREGENCY HAPPY STARHIGH RISE POWERRATTAN WORLDMULTIDARLINGLINKMARIOLADY BILLIE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 142.5

PLACE

2 37

7 34.5

11 36

QUINELLA

7,11 857.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 236.5

2,11 232

7,11 216.5

FORECAST

11,7 1,646

TIERCE

11,7,2 14,888

TRIO

2,7,11 2,739

FIRST 4

2,7,10,11 22,975

QUARTET

11,7,2,10 319,820

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/7 221

12/11 694.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,12/2,7,11 175,945