沙田 · 2024-12-15 · 07:45
第 6場
2024-12-15沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米。由B Thompson策騎、C W Chang訓練的NEW FUTURE FOLKS勝出，贏出2-1/2。THE HEIR獲得亞軍；BALLISTIC WIN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.0倍大熱門BALLISTIC WIN跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS 後段發力 B- 1.21.90 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 3 | 5.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | THE HEIR 後段發力 TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 2 | 9.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | BALLISTIC WIN 後段發力 CP/H J McDonald · T P Yung | J McDonald | T P Yung | 6 | 3.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | AMAZING RUN 後段發力 B2/TT2 H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 13 | 6.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | RUN RAN RUN B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 7 | 78.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | LAKESHORE HERO 早段領放 B- L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 4 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | YUEN LONG ELITE 後段發力 TT1 Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 11 | 5.5 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | CIRCUIT MAXIMUS 後段發力 XB/TT A Pouchin · C S Shum | A Pouchin | C S Shum | 1 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | MOTOMAN TT L Hewitson · P C Ng | L Hewitson | P C Ng | 12 | 80.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SMILING COLLECTOR 後段發力 CP/XB H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 9 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | WISDOM STAR B/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 8 | 137.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 14 | SPEED SWORD TT M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 5 | 92.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | LUCKY GOLD B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 14 | 49.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 14 | 10 | CALIFORNIA STAR B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 45.0 | 17 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS | 17.6% | 5.68 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | YUEN LONG ELITE | 14.9% | 6.71 | 7 |
| 3 | 1 | BALLISTIC WIN | 13.1% | 7.61 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | AMAZING RUN | 10.9% | 9.14 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 9.9% | 10.08 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | THE HEIR | 8.8% | 11.42 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | LAKESHORE HERO | 4.4% | 22.51 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | CALIFORNIA STAR | 4.2% | 23.79 | 14 |
| 9 | 14 | SPEED SWORD | 3.7% | 27.16 | 12 |
| 10 | 5 | MOTOMAN | 3.0% | 33.53 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | WISDOM STAR | 2.7% | 37.09 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | LUCKY GOLD | 2.6% | 38.53 | 13 |
| 13 | 13 | CIRCUIT MAXIMUS | 2.4% | 40.94 | 8 |
| 14 | 6 | RUN RAN RUN | 1.7% | 59.93 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 56.5
PLACE
1 14.5
2 26
4 18
QUINELLA
2,4 265
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 51.5
1,4 34.5
2,4 76.5
FORECAST
4,2 464
TIERCE
4,2,1 1,395
TRIO
1,2,4 200
FIRST 4
1,2,4,7 272
QUARTET
4,2,1,7 8,649
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,11/1,2,4 2,152
5TH DOUBLE
11/2 64.5
11/4 229
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,6/4,8,11/1,2,4 61,876
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,6/4,8,11/Any Combination 824