沙田 · 2025-01-05 · 07:10
第 5場
2025-01-05沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米。由E C W Wong策騎、D A Hayes訓練的ARIEL勝出，贏出1/2。HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER獲得亞軍；SIGHT SUPREME獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。4.9倍大熱門HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ARIEL 一路領先 B/TT 1.48.71 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 2 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 後段發力 B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | SIGHT SUPREME 後段發力 B B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | RELIABLE PROFIT 後段發力 P/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 14 | 5.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | THESIS TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 5 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | KINGLY DEMEANOR TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 9 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | HAKKA RADIANCE B2/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 13 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | STRONGEST BOY 後段發力 B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 12 | 94.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | CAN'T GO WONG 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 10 | 31.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET B-/H/XB/PC2/TT- K De Melo · K H Ting | K De Melo | K H Ting | 4 | 48.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | FANTASTIC FUN XB/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 1 | 6.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS 後段發力 CP1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 41.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | POCHETTINO H/P/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 7 | 58.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | VIVA CHALEUR H/PC/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 6 | 9.9 | 10-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HAKKA RADIANCE | 15.2% | 6.56 | 7 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER | 14.9% | 6.72 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 12.0% | 8.33 | 4 |
| 4 | 14 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 7.6% | 13.22 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | VIVA CHALEUR | 7.3% | 13.66 | 14 |
| 6 | 2 | THESIS | 6.7% | 14.95 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | ARIEL | 5.9% | 16.83 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 5.6% | 17.73 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | SIGHT SUPREME | 5.3% | 18.95 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | CAN'T GO WONG | 5.1% | 19.52 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | FANTASTIC FUN | 5.1% | 19.79 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 3.8% | 26.12 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | POCHETTINO | 3.0% | 33.85 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | STRONGEST BOY | 2.5% | 40.26 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 121
PLACE
6 37
7 27.5
12 20
QUINELLA
6,12 366.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 212
6,12 148
7,12 68.5
FORECAST
6,12 929
TIERCE
6,12,7 8,623
TRIO
6,7,12 1,202
FIRST 4
3,6,7,12 1,358
QUARTET
6,12,7,3 43,668
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST TREBLE
1/2/6 2,088
1/2/12 67
4TH DOUBLE
2/6 1,333
2/12 35.5