Sha Tin · 2025-01-05 · 07:10
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-05 was Class 4 over 1800m. ARIEL, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER second and SIGHT SUPREME third. The winner led throughout. The 4.9 favourite HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | ARIEL Wire to wire B/TT 1.48.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 2 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | SIGHT SUPREME Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 11 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly P/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 14 | 5.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | THESIS TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 5 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | KINGLY DEMEANOR TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 9 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | HAKKA RADIANCE B2/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 13 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 12 | 94.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 10 | 31.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET B-/H/XB/PC2/TT- K De Melo · K H Ting | K De Melo | K H Ting | 4 | 48.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | FANTASTIC FUN XB/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 1 | 6.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly CP1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 41.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | POCHETTINO H/P/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 7 | 58.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | VIVA CHALEUR H/PC/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 6 | 9.9 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HAKKA RADIANCE | 15.2% | 6.56 | 7 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER | 14.9% | 6.72 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 12.0% | 8.33 | 4 |
| 4 | 14 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 7.6% | 13.22 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | VIVA CHALEUR | 7.3% | 13.66 | 14 |
| 6 | 2 | THESIS | 6.7% | 14.95 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | ARIEL | 5.9% | 16.83 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 5.6% | 17.73 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | SIGHT SUPREME | 5.3% | 18.95 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | CAN'T GO WONG | 5.1% | 19.52 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | FANTASTIC FUN | 5.1% | 19.79 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 3.8% | 26.12 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | POCHETTINO | 3.0% | 33.85 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | STRONGEST BOY | 2.5% | 40.26 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 121
PLACE
6 37
7 27.5
12 20
QUINELLA
6,12 366.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 212
6,12 148
7,12 68.5
FORECAST
6,12 929
TIERCE
6,12,7 8,623
TRIO
6,7,12 1,202
FIRST 4
3,6,7,12 1,358
QUARTET
6,12,7,3 43,668
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/2/6 2,088
1/2/12 67
4TH DOUBLE
2/6 1,333
2/12 35.5