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Sha Tin · 2025-01-05 · 07:40

Race 6

Class 3 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-05 was Class 3 over 1000m. BABY CRYSTAL, ridden by A Pouchin and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-3/4, with RED ELEGANCE second and GOLDEN LUCK third. The 3.5 favourite KA YING VICTORY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.56.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BABY CRYSTAL B/TT 0.56.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Pouchin · K W Lui 14 13.0 2-3/4
2 4 RED ELEGANCE B H Bowman · D J Whyte 5 8.7 2-3/4
3 14 GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT L Hewitson · K L Man 10 8.0 3
4 8 CANDLELIGHT DINNER B-/H2 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 9 54.0 3-1/4
5 5 KA YING VICTORY Z Purton · D J Hall 4 3.5 4
6 12 GRAND NOVA E K Teetan · J Size 7 5.8 4
7 10 AURIO TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 12 6.1 4
8 7 FAST RESPONDER B-/SR2/TT- P N Wong · D J Whyte 2 73.0 4-1/4
9 2 DREAM WINNER CP/TT L Ferraris · F C Lor 8 12.0 4-1/2
10 6 HOLMES A COURT TT1 B Avdulla · A S Cruz 13 30.0 6-1/4
11 3 FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 9.6 7-1/4
12 13 CELESTIAL HARMONY Y L Chung · D A Hayes 3 169.0 8-1/4
13 11 SKY CAP XB1/TT K De Melo · C Fownes 11 117.0 8-3/4
14 9 MIDORI GLORY PC1/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 48.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BABY CRYSTAL2. RED ELEGANCE+2.75L3. GOLDEN LUCK+3L4. CANDLELIGHT DINNER+3.25L5. KA YING VICTORY+4L6. GRAND NOVA+4L7. AURIO+4L8. FAST RESPONDER+4.25L9. DREAM WINNER+4.5L10. HOLMES A COURT+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick KA YING VICTORY (25.1%) finished 5th — the winner BABY CRYSTAL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 KA YING VICTORY 25.1% 3.99 5
2 4 RED ELEGANCE 20.3% 4.92 2
3 12 GRAND NOVA 9.2% 10.91 6
4 1 BABY CRYSTAL 7.1% 14.15 1
5 9 MIDORI GLORY 6.7% 14.94 14
6 3 FLYING HIGH 6.0% 16.56 11
7 10 AURIO 5.8% 17.32 7
8 2 DREAM WINNER 5.6% 17.99 9
9 6 HOLMES A COURT 4.2% 23.72 10
10 14 GOLDEN LUCK 4.1% 24.15 3
11 7 FAST RESPONDER 2.4% 41.33 8
12 8 CANDLELIGHT DINNER 1.3% 77.28 4
13 11 SKY CAP 1.3% 78.97 13
14 13 CELESTIAL HARMONY 1.0% 102.31 12
KA YING VICTORYRED ELEGANCEGRAND NOVABABY CRYSTAL — wonMIDORI GLORYFLYING HIGHAURIODREAM WINNERHOLMES A COURTGOLDEN LUCKFAST RESPONDERCANDLELIGHT DINNERSKY CAPCELESTIAL HARMONY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 134.5

PLACE

1 34

4 27

14 23

QUINELLA

1,4 546.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 177

1,14 156.5

4,14 117

FORECAST

1,4 1,030

TIERCE

1,4,14 10,713

TRIO

1,4,14 1,664

FIRST 4

1,4,8,14 16,037

QUARTET

1,4,14,8 272,487

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,12/1,4,14 291,957

5TH DOUBLE

6/1 3,170.5

6/4 347.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,11,12/6,7,12/1,4,14 7,973,582

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,11,12/6,7,12/Any Combination 34,256