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Sha Tin · 2025-01-05 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-05 was Class 5 over 1200m. COUNTRY DANCER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by NOSE, with STERLING WONGCHOY second and SILVER DESTINY third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 COUNTRY DANCER E 1.09.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 6 3.1 NOSE
2 7 STERLING WONGCHOY CP-/XB/B1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 3 16.0 NOSE
3 3 SILVER DESTINY TT Z Purton · C H Yip 1 4.0 2-1/2
4 8 HOSS B/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So 10 14.0 3
5 11 WINNING TURN PC/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu 8 125.0 3-1/4
6 4 SPEEDY FORTUNE B2/TT P N Wong · D Eustace 4 6.6 3-1/2
7 6 WOODFIRE CHAMP CP-/V1/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 25.0 3-1/2
8 12 CALIFORNIA ICON B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 30.0 4
9 10 MIU FA FA TT- M F Poon · F C Lor 2 6.4 4
10 5 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 11 16.0 5-3/4
11 2 DAY DAY VICTORY V- L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 53.0 7-1/4
12 9 OMAKASE H K H Chan · Y S Tsui 9 23.0 11
0 FLYING ROMANTIC H Bowman · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COUNTRY DANCER2. STERLING WONGCHOY+0.05L3. SILVER DESTINY+2.5L4. HOSS+3L5. WINNING TURN+3.25L6. SPEEDY FORTUNE+3.5L7. WOODFIRE CHAMP+3.5L8. CALIFORNIA ICON+4L9. MIU FA FA+4L10. SAME TO YOU+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SILVER DESTINY (23.7%) finished 3rd — the winner COUNTRY DANCER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SILVER DESTINY 23.7% 4.22 3
2 1 COUNTRY DANCER 20.1% 4.98 1
3 4 SPEEDY FORTUNE 16.3% 6.13 6
4 5 SAME TO YOU 9.0% 11.12 10
5 6 WOODFIRE CHAMP 8.0% 12.48 7
6 8 HOSS 4.8% 21.02 4
7 12 CALIFORNIA ICON 4.2% 24.04 8
8 7 STERLING WONGCHOY 4.0% 25.18 2
9 10 MIU FA FA 3.9% 25.68 9
10 2 DAY DAY VICTORY 2.5% 40.61 11
11 9 OMAKASE 2.2% 45.03 12
12 11 WINNING TURN 1.4% 71.24 5
SILVER DESTINYCOUNTRY DANCER — wonSPEEDY FORTUNESAME TO YOUWOODFIRE CHAMPHOSSCALIFORNIA ICONSTERLING WONGCHOYMIU FA FADAY DAY VICTORYOMAKASEWINNING TURN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 31

PLACE

1 14

3 17

7 37

QUINELLA

1,7 317

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 28

1,7 98.5

3,7 110.5

FORECAST

1,7 417

TIERCE

1,7,3 1,550

TRIO

1,3,7 285

FIRST 4

1,3,7,8 806

QUARTET

1,7,3,8 15,864