沙田 · 2025-01-19 · 07:40
第 7場
2025-01-19沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1400米。由M Chadwick策騎、K L Man訓練的PATCH OF COSMO勝出，贏出3/4。RISING FROM ASHES獲得亞軍；LIGHT YEARS CHARM獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。1.6倍大熱門LIGHT YEARS CHARM跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | PATCH OF COSMO 後段發力 B 1.21.47 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | RISING FROM ASHES 後段發力 B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 2 | 60.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | LIGHT YEARS CHARM 後段發力 XB Z Purton · D Eustace | Z Purton | D Eustace | 1 | 1.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | EVERYONE'S STAR 後段發力 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 14 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS CP-/B1 J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 13 | 8.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | FIND MY LOVE 後段發力 B/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte | A Pouchin | D J Whyte | 10 | 42.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | WINNING GOLD 後段發力 TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 9 | 54.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | CHAIN OF GOLD 後段發力 CP/H/TT C Williams · W K Mo | C Williams | W K Mo | 3 | 35.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SUPERB BOY 早段領放 B1/TT H Bowman · K W Lui | H Bowman | K W Lui | 7 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | NAMJONG KINGDOM 後段發力 TT- B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 8 | 66.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | LIVEANDLETLIVE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE XB L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 12 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 14 | THUNDER BLINK H/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 5 | 72.0 | 5 |
| 14 | 3 | PRESTIGE ALWAYS V/TT B Shinn · P C Ng | B Shinn | P C Ng | 4 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LIGHT YEARS CHARM | 29.1% | 3.44 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | GRACIOUS EXPRESS | 12.8% | 7.82 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 10.2% | 9.79 | 8 |
| 4 | 13 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE | 8.4% | 11.97 | 12 |
| 5 | 8 | EVERYONE'S STAR | 7.8% | 12.79 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | PRESTIGE ALWAYS | 6.7% | 14.93 | 14 |
| 7 | 12 | PATCH OF COSMO | 6.1% | 16.28 | 1 |
| 8 | 6 | RISING FROM ASHES | 3.9% | 25.54 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | LIVEANDLETLIVE | 3.5% | 28.88 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | SUPERB BOY | 2.9% | 34.80 | 9 |
| 11 | 14 | THUNDER BLINK | 2.4% | 41.97 | 13 |
| 12 | 11 | FIND MY LOVE | 2.2% | 45.13 | 6 |
| 13 | 4 | WINNING GOLD | 2.1% | 47.74 | 7 |
| 14 | 10 | NAMJONG KINGDOM | 1.9% | 51.70 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 165.5
PLACE
6 135.5
9 10.1
12 34
QUINELLA
6,12 5,357
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 260
6,12 1,466
9,12 40
FORECAST
12,6 8,375
TIERCE
12,6,9 34,234
TRIO
6,9,12 2,280
FIRST 4
6,8,9,12 14,639
QUARTET
12,6,9,8 584,726
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/6,9,12 10,267
6TH DOUBLE
1/6 86
1/12 181
TRIPLE TRIO
1,3,4/1,3,4/6,9,12 2,061,460
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,3,4/1,3,4/Any Combination 1,951