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Sha Tin · 2025-01-19 · 07:40

Race 7

Class 3 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-19 was Class 3 over 1400m. PATCH OF COSMO, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with RISING FROM ASHES second and LIGHT YEARS CHARM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite LIGHT YEARS CHARM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 PATCH OF COSMO Closed strongly B 1.21.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 6 16.0 3/4
2 6 RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 2 60.0 3/4
3 9 LIGHT YEARS CHARM Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D Eustace 1 1.6 1-1/4
4 8 EVERYONE'S STAR Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 14 27.0 1-3/4
5 2 GRACIOUS EXPRESS CP-/B1 J McDonald · P F Yiu 13 8.6 2-1/2
6 11 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly B/TT A Pouchin · D J Whyte 10 42.0 3
7 4 WINNING GOLD Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 9 54.0 3-3/4
8 5 CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/TT C Williams · W K Mo 3 35.0 3-3/4
9 1 SUPERB BOY Led early B1/TT H Bowman · K W Lui 7 27.0 4-1/4
10 10 NAMJONG KINGDOM Closed strongly TT- B Avdulla · C S Shum 8 66.0 4-3/4
11 7 LIVEANDLETLIVE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 24.0 4-3/4
12 13 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE XB L Hewitson · M Newnham 12 10.0 5
13 14 THUNDER BLINK H/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 5 72.0 5
14 3 PRESTIGE ALWAYS V/TT B Shinn · P C Ng 4 11.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF COSMO2. RISING FROM ASHES+0.75L3. LIGHT YEARS CHARM+1.25L4. EVERYONE'S STAR+1.75L5. GRACIOUS EXPRESS+2.5L6. FIND MY LOVE+3L7. WINNING GOLD+3.75L8. CHAIN OF GOLD+3.75L9. SUPERB BOY+4.25L10. NAMJONG KINGDOM+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LIGHT YEARS CHARM (29.1%) finished 3rd — the winner PATCH OF COSMO was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 LIGHT YEARS CHARM 29.1% 3.44 3
2 2 GRACIOUS EXPRESS 12.8% 7.82 5
3 5 CHAIN OF GOLD 10.2% 9.79 8
4 13 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 8.4% 11.97 12
5 8 EVERYONE'S STAR 7.8% 12.79 4
6 3 PRESTIGE ALWAYS 6.7% 14.93 14
7 12 PATCH OF COSMO 6.1% 16.28 1
8 6 RISING FROM ASHES 3.9% 25.54 2
9 7 LIVEANDLETLIVE 3.5% 28.88 11
10 1 SUPERB BOY 2.9% 34.80 9
11 14 THUNDER BLINK 2.4% 41.97 13
12 11 FIND MY LOVE 2.2% 45.13 6
13 4 WINNING GOLD 2.1% 47.74 7
14 10 NAMJONG KINGDOM 1.9% 51.70 10
LIGHT YEARS CHARMGRACIOUS EXPRESSCHAIN OF GOLDARMOUR WAR EAGLEEVERYONE'S STARPRESTIGE ALWAYSPATCH OF COSMO — wonRISING FROM ASHESLIVEANDLETLIVESUPERB BOYTHUNDER BLINKFIND MY LOVEWINNING GOLDNAMJONG KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 165.5

PLACE

6 135.5

9 10.1

12 34

QUINELLA

6,12 5,357

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 260

6,12 1,466

9,12 40

FORECAST

12,6 8,375

TIERCE

12,6,9 34,234

TRIO

6,9,12 2,280

FIRST 4

6,8,9,12 14,639

QUARTET

12,6,9,8 584,726

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,4/6,9,12 10,267

6TH DOUBLE

1/6 86

1/12 181

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,4/1,3,4/6,9,12 2,061,460

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,4/1,3,4/Any Combination 1,951