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Sha Tin · 2025-01-19 · 06:05

Race 4

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-19 was Class 4 over 1400m. FORERUNNER, ridden by C Williams and trained by W K Mo, won by HD, with BRILLIANT EXPRESS second and ETALON OR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite BRILLIANT EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT 1.21.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Williams · W K Mo 7 9.3 HD
2 5 BRILLIANT EXPRESS Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 8 3.3 HD
3 6 ETALON OR Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 9 3.9 N
4 11 PATCH OF STARS Closed strongly B-/TT K C Leung · K L Man 5 30.0 1-1/4
5 9 STRATHPEFFER Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 6.7 2-1/4
6 12 EURO ROCKS B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 11 23.0 3
7 2 LESLIE Closed strongly B J McDonald · C W Chang 14 21.0 3
8 7 TOP TIME Closed strongly K De Melo · W Y So 13 24.0 4
9 4 FANTASTIC FUN XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 4 16.0 5
10 3 SECOND TO NONE C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 18.0 6-1/4
11 8 MR JUSTICE CP/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 162.0 6-1/2
12 14 PERFECTO MOMENTS CP Y L Chung · K H Ting 3 55.0 6-3/4
13 13 WORLD HERO Led early CP A Pouchin · D A Hayes 10 41.0 9
14 1 FUN TOGETHER CP/TT L Ferraris · T P Yung 12 14.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORERUNNER2. BRILLIANT EXPRESS+0.2L3. ETALON OR+0.05L4. PATCH OF STARS+1.25L5. STRATHPEFFER+2.25L6. EURO ROCKS+3L7. LESLIE+3L8. TOP TIME+4L9. FANTASTIC FUN+5L10. SECOND TO NONE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BRILLIANT EXPRESS (17.2%) finished 2nd — the winner FORERUNNER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BRILLIANT EXPRESS 17.2% 5.82 2
2 9 STRATHPEFFER 15.0% 6.69 5
3 6 ETALON OR 11.2% 8.90 3
4 12 EURO ROCKS 7.7% 12.94 6
5 10 FORERUNNER 7.0% 14.24 1
6 3 SECOND TO NONE 6.5% 15.29 10
7 2 LESLIE 6.4% 15.70 7
8 11 PATCH OF STARS 6.3% 15.97 4
9 1 FUN TOGETHER 5.3% 18.95 14
10 4 FANTASTIC FUN 4.3% 23.49 9
11 7 TOP TIME 4.2% 23.79 8
12 14 PERFECTO MOMENTS 4.1% 24.59 12
13 13 WORLD HERO 3.8% 26.29 13
14 8 MR JUSTICE 1.1% 90.44 11
BRILLIANT EXPRESSSTRATHPEFFERETALON OREURO ROCKSFORERUNNER — wonSECOND TO NONELESLIEPATCH OF STARSFUN TOGETHERFANTASTIC FUNTOP TIMEPERFECTO MOMENTSWORLD HEROMR JUSTICE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 93.5

PLACE

5 16.5

6 16.5

10 27

QUINELLA

5,10 163

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 32.5

5,10 56.5

6,10 71

FORECAST

10,5 421

TIERCE

10,5,6 1,628

TRIO

5,6,10 210

FIRST 4

5,6,10,11 945

QUARTET

10,5,6,11 29,197

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

8/5 223

8/10 3,240.5