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Sha Tin · 2025-01-19 · 06:35

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-19 was Class 4 over 1400m. MR ENERGIA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with BEAUTY GLORY second and GALVANIC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite JOLLY RULER finished 13th.

Result

Official · 1.21.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MR ENERGIA Closed strongly B 1.21.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 14 5.0 NOSE
2 1 BEAUTY GLORY Led early CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 31.0 NOSE
3 3 GALVANIC Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 7 13.0 1-3/4
4 9 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC-/B2/TT M F Poon · D Eustace 1 11.0 2-1/4
5 13 BEAUTIFUL WIN Closed strongly CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So 6 24.0 2-1/2
6 5 PATCH OF TIME H K Teetan · W K Mo 4 17.0 2-3/4
7 12 GALE SAGA B C L Chau · P C Ng 11 33.0 2-3/4
8 8 SMILING COLLECTOR CP/XB H Bentley · K H Ting 2 11.0 3-1/4
9 10 GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 13 27.0 4
10 14 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS XB-/CP2/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 9 69.0 4-1/2
11 11 LUCKY IMPACT K C Leung · F C Lor 10 20.0 4-3/4
12 7 NOBLE FANS H B Avdulla · J Size 5 5.0 5-1/2
13 2 JOLLY RULER TT J McDonald · P F Yiu 12 3.4 6-1/2
14 6 SPORTIC WARRIOR H A Atzeni · K L Man 3 77.0 20-1/4
0 SHAMUS STORM A Atzeni · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR ENERGIA2. BEAUTY GLORY+0.05L3. GALVANIC+1.75L4. JUMBO FORTUNE+2.25L5. BEAUTIFUL WIN+2.5L6. PATCH OF TIME+2.75L7. GALE SAGA+2.75L8. SMILING COLLECTOR+3.25L9. GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY+4L10. CIRCUIT MAXIMUS+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NOBLE FANS (23.3%) finished 12th — the winner MR ENERGIA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 NOBLE FANS 23.3% 4.29 12
2 4 MR ENERGIA 15.2% 6.57 1
3 9 JUMBO FORTUNE 12.6% 7.96 4
4 2 JOLLY RULER 12.0% 8.34 13
5 5 PATCH OF TIME 5.7% 17.41 6
6 10 GOLDENTRONICMIGHTY 5.7% 17.52 9
7 8 SMILING COLLECTOR 5.5% 18.11 8
8 3 GALVANIC 4.4% 22.90 3
9 12 GALE SAGA 3.7% 26.83 7
10 1 BEAUTY GLORY 3.4% 29.27 2
11 11 LUCKY IMPACT 3.2% 31.32 11
12 14 CIRCUIT MAXIMUS 2.4% 41.00 10
13 13 BEAUTIFUL WIN 1.9% 51.92 5
14 6 SPORTIC WARRIOR 0.9% 117.53 14
NOBLE FANSMR ENERGIA — wonJUMBO FORTUNEJOLLY RULERPATCH OF TIMEGOLDENTRONICMIGHTYSMILING COLLECTORGALVANICGALE SAGABEAUTY GLORYLUCKY IMPACTCIRCUIT MAXIMUSBEAUTIFUL WINSPORTIC WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 50

PLACE

1 81.5

3 35.5

4 19

QUINELLA

1,4 1,061.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 442

1,4 340

3,4 123.5

FORECAST

4,1 1,601

TIERCE

4,1,3 15,228

TRIO

1,3,4 2,675

FIRST 4

1,3,4,9 5,643

QUARTET

4,1,3,9 115,350

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

8/10/1 15,359

8/10/4 18,400

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,10/1,3,4 115,228

4TH DOUBLE

10/1 339

10/4 757