沙田 · 2026-03-15 · 07:35
LUNG KONG HANDICAP
第 7場
2026-03-15沙田第7場「LUNG KONG HANDICAP」，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、J Size訓練的ENDEARED勝出。JUST FOLLOW ME獲得亞軍；PAPAYA BROSE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.7倍大熱門PAPAYA BROSE跑獲第3名。
場地詳情
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ENDEARED 後段發力 XB 1:21.40 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| 2 | 12 | JUST FOLLOW ME 後段發力 CP/XB/TT K Teetan · B Crawford | K Teetan | B Crawford | 2 | 6.0 | HD |
| 3 | 2 | PAPAYA BROSE 後段發力 TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 2.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | THUNDER PRINCE A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 5 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | CALIFORNIA BAY 後段發力 V/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 14 | 6.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | PROUD BOX 早段領放 CP1/TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 3 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY CP/TT B Avdulla · W K Mo | B Avdulla | W K Mo | 1 | 8.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | LAKESHORE HERO J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 11 | 33.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 14 | SUPERB GUY 後段發力 XB/CP1 M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 13 | 36.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | BLOSSOMY 後段發力 B1 M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 12 | 30.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | AMAZING FUN TT R Kingscote · C H Yip | R Kingscote | C H Yip | 4 | 38.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | KINGDOM OF RICHES H/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 8 | 51.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 3 | GREY CHARGER XB C Y Ho · D Eustace | C Y Ho | D Eustace | 7 | 133.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 5 | NOVA KNIGHT B M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 111.0 | 15-1/4 |
| — | 0 | VOLCANIC SPARK B · P F Yiu | — | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | INCREDIBLE MOMENT · M Newnham | — | M Newnham | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PAPAYA BROSE | 18.2% | 5.51 | 3 |
| 2 | 12 | JUST FOLLOW ME | 16.7% | 6.00 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY | 14.8% | 6.74 | 7 |
| 4 | 7 | CALIFORNIA BAY | 14.5% | 6.88 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | ENDEARED | 8.1% | 12.35 | 1 |
| 6 | 13 | PROUD BOX | 5.5% | 18.13 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | THUNDER PRINCE | 4.3% | 23.19 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | AMAZING FUN | 3.6% | 28.14 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | KINGDOM OF RICHES | 3.1% | 32.01 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | LAKESHORE HERO | 2.9% | 34.67 | 8 |
| 11 | 14 | SUPERB GUY | 2.5% | 39.41 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | GREY CHARGER | 2.5% | 40.74 | 13 |
| 13 | 6 | BLOSSOMY | 1.8% | 54.22 | 10 |
| 14 | 5 | NOVA KNIGHT | 1.5% | 67.41 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 79.5
PLACE
1 24
2 14.5
12 19
QUINELLA
1,12 237.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 52
1,12 76.5
2,12 35.5
FORECAST
1,12 502
TIERCE
1,12,2 1,360
TRIO
1,2,12 183
FIRST 4
1,2,10,12 458
QUARTET
1,12,2,10 12,807
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,10/1,2,12 45,739
6TH DOUBLE
3/1 1,051
3/12 128
10/1 123.5
10/12 13
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,11/2,3,10/Any Combination 440,029