Happy Valley · 2019-09-11
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-11 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GREEN DISPATCH, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with SPEEDY WALLY second and C P POWER third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite ROYAL RACER finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GREEN DISPATCH Wire to wire TT 1.40.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 6 | 5.0 | N |
| 2 | 9 | SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 2 | 8.9 | N |
| 3 | 6 | C P POWER Closed strongly V/TT G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 4 | 21.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/P/TT K H Chan · R Gibson | K H Chan | R Gibson | 5 | 9.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | POLYMER LUCK B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 7 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | ROYAL RACER H/P J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 2.9 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | NITRO EXPRESS TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 21.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | ENJOY LIFE B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 12.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ROYAL RACER | 27.9% | 3.59 | 7 |
| 2 | 7 | DREAM WARRIORS | 24.6% | 4.06 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | C P POWER | 8.1% | 12.30 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | GREEN DISPATCH | 7.9% | 12.60 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | SPEEDY WALLY | 7.9% | 12.67 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | POLYMER LUCK | 7.1% | 14.05 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 6.4% | 15.60 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | NITRO EXPRESS | 5.2% | 19.33 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | ENJOY LIFE | 4.9% | 20.61 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 50.5
PLACE
4 16.5
6 52.5
9 21
QUINELLA
4,9 225.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 162
4,9 68.5
6,9 179.5
TIERCE
4,9,6 6,441
TRIO
4,6,9 1,366
FIRST 4
4,6,7,9 881
QUARTET
4,9,6,7 19,929
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 26.5
A1 —