Happy Valley · 2019-09-11
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-11 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MEGATRON, ridden by K H Chan and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with GOLD VELVET second and SKY GEM third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite SKY GEM finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | MEGATRON Wire to wire V-/B2/TT 1.41.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 4 | 6.9 | N |
| 2 | 2 | GOLD VELVET Closed strongly B A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 12 | 6.3 | N |
| 3 | 5 | SKY GEM Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 3.3 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | LUCKY SHINY DAY Closed strongly CP1 T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 10 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | CURLING LUXURY B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 8 | 6.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | GOLDEN KID Closed strongly V A Sanna · K W Lui | A Sanna | K W Lui | 9 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | COME ON WONGCHOY C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 1 | 29.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 47.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY Closed strongly H/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 5 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 10 | 3 | DRAGON WARRIOR B/XB C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 3 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 4 | LITTLE ISLAND Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 8.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | SUNNY MAJOR B/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 6 | 47.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SKY GEM | 33.0% | 3.03 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | DRAGON WARRIOR | 10.7% | 9.34 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | LITTLE ISLAND | 8.7% | 11.46 | 11 |
| 4 | 8 | LUCKY SHINY DAY | 6.7% | 14.94 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | MEGATRON | 6.4% | 15.73 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY | 6.1% | 16.38 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | GOLD VELVET | 6.0% | 16.65 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | COME ON WONGCHOY | 6.0% | 16.72 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | SUNNY MAJOR | 4.7% | 21.40 | 12 |
| 10 | 1 | CURLING LUXURY | 4.2% | 23.53 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 4.2% | 23.88 | 8 |
| 12 | 6 | GOLDEN KID | 3.3% | 30.09 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 69.5
PLACE
2 20
5 16
10 25
QUINELLA
2,10 220.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 52.5
2,10 80.5
5,10 66.5
TIERCE
10,2,5 1,933
TRIO
2,5,10 324
FIRST 4
2,5,8,10 910
QUARTET
10,2,5,8 22,138
2ND DOUBLE
4/2 211.5
4/10 1,215.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 29