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Happy Valley · 2019-09-11

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-11 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MEGATRON, ridden by K H Chan and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with GOLD VELVET second and SKY GEM third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite SKY GEM finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MEGATRON Wire to wire V-/B2/TT 1.41.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · P F Yiu 4 6.9 N
2 2 GOLD VELVET Closed strongly B A Domeyer · A T Millard 12 6.3 N
3 5 SKY GEM Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 7 3.3 1/2
4 8 LUCKY SHINY DAY Closed strongly CP1 T H So · L Ho 10 13.0 1-1/4
5 1 CURLING LUXURY B Shinn · Y S Tsui 8 6.5 1-1/2
6 6 GOLDEN KID Closed strongly V A Sanna · K W Lui 9 18.0 1-1/2
7 9 COME ON WONGCHOY C Y Ho · K L Man 1 29.0 2
8 11 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 47.0 2
9 12 ROMANTIC JOURNEY Closed strongly H/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 5 20.0 2
10 3 DRAGON WARRIOR B/XB C Schofield · K H Ting 3 12.0 3
11 4 LITTLE ISLAND Z Purton · K L Man 2 8.0 5-1/4
12 7 SUNNY MAJOR B/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 6 47.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MEGATRON2. GOLD VELVET+0.05L3. SKY GEM+0.5L4. LUCKY SHINY DAY+1.25L5. CURLING LUXURY+1.5L6. GOLDEN KID+1.5L7. COME ON WONGCHOY+2L8. WONDERFUL TIGER+2L9. ROMANTIC JOURNEY+2L10. DRAGON WARRIOR+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SKY GEM (33.0%) finished 3rd — the winner MEGATRON was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SKY GEM 33.0% 3.03 3
2 3 DRAGON WARRIOR 10.7% 9.34 10
3 4 LITTLE ISLAND 8.7% 11.46 11
4 8 LUCKY SHINY DAY 6.7% 14.94 4
5 10 MEGATRON 6.4% 15.73 1
6 12 ROMANTIC JOURNEY 6.1% 16.38 9
7 2 GOLD VELVET 6.0% 16.65 2
8 9 COME ON WONGCHOY 6.0% 16.72 7
9 7 SUNNY MAJOR 4.7% 21.40 12
10 1 CURLING LUXURY 4.2% 23.53 5
11 11 WONDERFUL TIGER 4.2% 23.88 8
12 6 GOLDEN KID 3.3% 30.09 6
SKY GEMDRAGON WARRIORLITTLE ISLANDLUCKY SHINY DAYMEGATRON — wonROMANTIC JOURNEYGOLD VELVETCOME ON WONGCHOYSUNNY MAJORCURLING LUXURYWONDERFUL TIGERGOLDEN KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 69.5

PLACE

2 20

5 16

10 25

QUINELLA

2,10 220.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 52.5

2,10 80.5

5,10 66.5

TIERCE

10,2,5 1,933

TRIO

2,5,10 324

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 910

QUARTET

10,2,5,8 22,138

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 211.5

4/10 1,215.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 29