Happy Valley · 2019-09-11
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-11 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LAST KINGDOM, ridden by A Sanna and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with CHEFANO second and PERFECT TO PLAY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite PERFECT TO PLAY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LAST KINGDOM Wire to wire XB 1.40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 6 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | CHEFANO Closed strongly CP1 Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 11 | 8.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 3.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | ALL YOU KNOW B/H/TT K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 4 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD Closed strongly M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 9.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | STIMULATION CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | ARCADA TT A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 12 | 8.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | HAR HAR HEART Closed strongly R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 9 | 80.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | AMAZING SATCHMO Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 3 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MERRYGOWIN Closed strongly B U Rispoli · P O'Sullivan | U Rispoli | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 79.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | CHARITY GO SR B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 2 | 7.6 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY H/V H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 1 | 38.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 26.9% | 3.71 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | CHEFANO | 16.6% | 6.02 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | SPLENDOUR AND GOLD | 11.0% | 9.11 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | ARCADA | 8.5% | 11.70 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | STIMULATION | 8.1% | 12.38 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | CHARITY GO | 5.9% | 16.92 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | LAST KINGDOM | 5.5% | 18.29 | 1 |
| 8 | 12 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 5.4% | 18.62 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | ALL YOU KNOW | 4.6% | 21.57 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | HAR HAR HEART | 4.0% | 25.04 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | MERRYGOWIN | 2.4% | 41.41 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 1.1% | 92.95 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 45
PLACE
2 28.5
10 14
11 17.5
QUINELLA
2,11 266.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 60.5
2,11 103.5
10,11 36.5
TIERCE
11,2,10 1,438
TRIO
2,10,11 186
FIRST 4
2,8,10,11 446
QUARTET
11,2,10,8 11,960
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,10,11/2,10,11 84,933
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19
6TH DOUBLE
11/2 247
11/11 822