Happy Valley · 2019-09-11
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-11 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HARDLY SWEARS, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with BEST SMILE second and WINNING WAYS third. The 2.0 favourite BEST SMILE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HARDLY SWEARS H 0.57.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 65.0 | N |
| 2 | 3 | BEST SMILE H/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 1 | 2.0 | N |
| 3 | 8 | WINNING WAYS B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 3 | 7.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | EVERBRAVE A Domeyer · K L Man | A Domeyer | K L Man | 5 | 17.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | MULTIMAX B-/V1/TT H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 4 | 56.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | ZERO HEDGE P/XB J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | SAM'S LOVE H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 6 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | I'M THE CONQUIST B- M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | ALLIED AGILITY CP/H1 B Shinn · P F Yiu | B Shinn | P F Yiu | 10 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | COBY WIN B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 11 | 92.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | NICE FANDANGO H/XB C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 4 | LOOK ERAS V T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 7 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEST SMILE | 30.1% | 3.32 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | ZERO HEDGE | 16.8% | 5.96 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | EVERBRAVE | 11.0% | 9.08 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | SAM'S LOVE | 7.1% | 14.17 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | ALLIED AGILITY | 6.7% | 14.99 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | MULTIMAX | 6.4% | 15.73 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | LOOK ERAS | 6.0% | 16.72 | 12 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING WAYS | 4.0% | 24.70 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 4.0% | 24.84 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | NICE FANDANGO | 3.2% | 31.36 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | HARDLY SWEARS | 3.0% | 33.57 | 1 |
| 12 | 10 | COBY WIN | 1.8% | 55.27 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 652.5
PLACE
3 10.5
7 143
8 21.5
QUINELLA
3,7 617
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 222
3,8 36.5
7,8 630
TIERCE
7,3,8 18,268
TRIO
3,7,8 1,314
FIRST 4
2,3,7,8 3,521
QUARTET
7,3,8,2 293,937
3 PICK 1
A3 37
A2 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
5/3 10.5
5/7 2,314.5