Happy Valley · 2019-09-11
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GREEN LUCK Closed strongly B/H 1.38.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 3.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 3 | 35.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | HARMONY HERO Closed strongly B/TT1 M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 1 | 4.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | ENRICHMENT Closed strongly P-/B1 C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 4 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | DOCTOR GEOFF H Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 6 | 3.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | CIRCUIT GLORY H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | MISSION TYCOON Led early B/TT A Domeyer · F C Lor | A Domeyer | F C Lor | 2 | 8.2 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | RIGHT CHOICE Closed strongly B U Rispoli · F C Lor | U Rispoli | F C Lor | 8 | 31.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | LITTERATEUR CP/H/XB K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 5 | 40.0 | 13-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-11 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GREEN LUCK, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with HELENE CHARISMA second and HARMONY HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GREEN LUCK | 35.1% | 2.85 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | HARMONY HERO | 13.2% | 7.56 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | RIGHT CHOICE | 12.8% | 7.80 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | DOCTOR GEOFF | 11.8% | 8.44 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | MISSION TYCOON | 11.5% | 8.72 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | CIRCUIT GLORY | 6.7% | 15.02 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | ENRICHMENT | 3.6% | 28.00 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA | 3.4% | 29.59 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | LITTERATEUR | 2.0% | 50.97 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 30.5
PLACE
5 14.5
6 62.5
9 14.5
QUINELLA
5,6 540
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 132.5
5,9 29
6,9 150.5
TIERCE
5,6,9 2,994
TRIO
5,6,9 531
FIRST 4
5,6,7,9 790
QUARTET
5,6,9,7 15,974
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,10/5,6,9 17,945
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/5 281
10/6 341.5