Happy Valley · 2019-09-25
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 6 | 7.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly H Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 3.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | RUTHVEN Led early H/TT R Bayliss · F C Lor | R Bayliss | F C Lor | 1 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | GREEN LUCK B/H C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 3.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | ENRICHMENT B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 5 | 5.9 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | BRAVE LEGEND B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | MR SO AND SO TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 4.9 | 6 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-25 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HELENE CHARISMA, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by J Moore, won by 3/4, with TIANCHI MONSTER second and RUTHVEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite GREEN LUCK finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GREEN LUCK | 27.8% | 3.60 | 4 |
| 2 | 0 | MR SO AND SO | 23.8% | 4.20 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 16.7% | 5.99 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | BRAVE LEGEND | 16.3% | 6.13 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | ENRICHMENT | 5.9% | 17.00 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | HELENE CHARISMA | 5.2% | 19.41 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | RUTHVEN | 4.4% | 22.89 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 75
PLACE
2 41.5
4 19.5
6 17
QUINELLA
4,6 147.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 136
2,6 117
4,6 51
TIERCE
4,6,2 3,222
TRIO
2,4,6 604
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 247
QUARTET
4,6,2,1 8,837
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23.5