Happy Valley · 2019-09-25
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CLEMENT LEGEND, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with JENERATOR second and HEAVENLY THOUGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite LAST KINGDOM finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 3 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | JENERATOR Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 6.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT H K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 8 | 28.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | XIANG BAI QI Closed strongly N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 7.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | RACING LUCK Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 9.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | LAST KINGDOM Led early XB A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 2 | 3.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | LUCKY TIME B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | WIN WIN Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 10 | 5.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | HO HO FEEL Closed strongly H/XB H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 9 | 131.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | SICHUAN DAR TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 1 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 12 | 99.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V U Rispoli · L Ho | U Rispoli | L Ho | 11 | 23.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | JENERATOR | 18.3% | 5.46 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | LAST KINGDOM | 16.7% | 5.98 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | WIN WIN | 15.9% | 6.29 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | RACING LUCK | 9.6% | 10.46 | 5 |
| 5 | 10 | CLEMENT LEGEND | 8.2% | 12.18 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | XIANG BAI QI | 6.2% | 16.03 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 5.5% | 18.33 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | LUCKY TIME | 5.0% | 19.88 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 4.1% | 24.61 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | SICHUAN DAR | 3.7% | 26.94 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 3.6% | 27.73 | 3 |
| 12 | 12 | HO HO FEEL | 3.2% | 31.23 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 216
PLACE
9 19
10 54.5
11 75
QUINELLA
9,10 684
QUINELLA PLACE
9,10 172.5
9,11 266.5
10,11 600.5
TIERCE
10,9,11 26,500
TRIO
9,10,11 5,146
FIRST 4
7,9,10,11 5,310
QUARTET
10,9,11,7 137,135
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,4/9,10,11 465,623
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 33
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
2/9 71
2/10 2,420