Happy Valley · 2019-09-25
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SHAMPORT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with VERY RICH MAN second and HAPPY TIME third. The 3.3 favourite TAKINGUFURTHER finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SHAMPORT V-/TT1 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | VERY RICH MAN H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 3 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | HAPPY TIME B-/H/TT2 Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 8 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | HERO TIME B/H/XB/TT N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 9 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | THE ABRAXAS H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | KANBEKI MOLLY B- H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 1 | 72.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | SIMPLY FLUKE M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 11 | 50.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | TAKINGUFURTHER H/V C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 2 | 3.3 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | IRON BOY B2/XB2/TT- R Bayliss · D J Whyte | R Bayliss | D J Whyte | 12 | 19.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | CHEEKY BEE B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 6 | 9.6 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | BRAVERY AND POWER CP-/B1/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 10 | 150.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | ROMAN ODYSSEY TT T H So · K L Man | T H So | K L Man | 7 | 43.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY TIME | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | SHAMPORT | 18.9% | 5.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 17.9% | 5.59 | 8 |
| 4 | 8 | CHEEKY BEE | 12.6% | 7.94 | 10 |
| 5 | 10 | THE ABRAXAS | 8.7% | 11.47 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | HERO TIME | 6.6% | 15.23 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | IRON BOY | 4.8% | 20.90 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 3.9% | 25.44 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | VERY RICH MAN | 2.5% | 39.33 | 2 |
| 10 | 12 | ROMAN ODYSSEY | 1.6% | 60.80 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | KANBEKI MOLLY | 1.0% | 103.71 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 1.0% | 105.05 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 55.5
PLACE
1 35.5
3 14
9 18.5
QUINELLA
1,9 442.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 92.5
1,9 136
3,9 44
TIERCE
9,1,3 3,309
TRIO
1,3,9 460
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 876
QUARTET
9,1,3,2 21,656
2ND DOUBLE
1/1 69
1/9 330.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 20.5
A3 —