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Happy Valley · 2019-09-25

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-25 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TELECOM PUMA, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with MY ALLY second and FEARLESS FIRE third. The 3.9 favourite HIGH REV finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TELECOM PUMA TT 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 3 9.1 HD
2 3 MY ALLY TT G van Niekerk · J Moore 12 6.4 HD
3 4 FEARLESS FIRE XB Z Purton · C Fownes 1 4.2 1/2
4 10 FANTASTIC FABIO K H Chan · C H Yip 10 13.0 3/4
5 7 MEGA HEART XB/TT R Bayliss · C W Chang 7 32.0 1-3/4
6 9 HIGH REV B/XB C Y Ho · D J Hall 6 3.9 2-1/4
7 1 DIVINE UNICORN TT2 A Sanna · Y S Tsui 5 168.0 2-1/2
8 5 SMART LEADER B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 4.4 3-1/4
9 6 LIGHTNING STAR TT1 H W Lai · C S Shum 9 64.0 3-1/2
10 8 SKYEY SUPREME TT H N Wong · K W Lui 8 224.0 3-1/2
11 12 SPLIT OF A SECOND H M F Poon · L Ho 2 11.0 4-1/4
12 11 POWERMAX B K Teetan · R Gibson 11 79.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TELECOM PUMA2. MY ALLY+0.2L3. FEARLESS FIRE+0.5L4. FANTASTIC FABIO+0.75L5. MEGA HEART+1.75L6. HIGH REV+2.25L7. DIVINE UNICORN+2.5L8. SMART LEADER+3.25L9. LIGHTNING STAR+3.5L10. SKYEY SUPREME+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HIGH REV (28.5%) finished 6th — the winner TELECOM PUMA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 HIGH REV 28.5% 3.51 6
2 5 SMART LEADER 20.7% 4.84 8
3 4 FEARLESS FIRE 18.2% 5.48 3
4 3 MY ALLY 7.4% 13.52 2
5 12 SPLIT OF A SECOND 6.9% 14.51 11
6 10 FANTASTIC FABIO 5.4% 18.69 4
7 2 TELECOM PUMA 4.4% 22.50 1
8 7 MEGA HEART 4.0% 24.74 5
9 11 POWERMAX 1.8% 55.40 12
10 6 LIGHTNING STAR 1.3% 76.31 9
11 1 DIVINE UNICORN 0.7% 142.96 7
12 8 SKYEY SUPREME 0.7% 151.42 10
HIGH REVSMART LEADERFEARLESS FIREMY ALLYSPLIT OF A SECONDFANTASTIC FABIOTELECOM PUMA — wonMEGA HEARTPOWERMAXLIGHTNING STARDIVINE UNICORNSKYEY SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 91

PLACE

2 24

3 27

4 16

QUINELLA

2,3 289.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 108.5

2,4 73.5

3,4 82

TIERCE

2,3,4 4,529

TRIO

2,3,4 599

FIRST 4

2,3,4,10 1,218

QUARTET

2,3,4,10 26,947

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 22

All pools (3 more)

6TH DOUBLE

12/2 439

12/3 123

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,9/6,8,12/2,3,4 2,741,521

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,9/6,8,12/Any Combination 2,479