Happy Valley · 2019-09-25
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-09-25 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GENTLE BREEZE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with FRUSTRATED second and SUPER JUNIOR third. The 1.8 favourite AQUILA finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | GENTLE BREEZE B 0.57.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 2 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | FRUSTRATED B1 K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 4 | 7.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | SUPER JUNIOR V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 9 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | AQUILA J Moreira · K H Ting | J Moreira | K H Ting | 6 | 1.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | BREEDERS' STAR H K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 66.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | BREEDERS' SKY CP H N Wong · R Gibson | H N Wong | R Gibson | 3 | 196.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | SPECIAL STARS U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 8 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | YOUNG LEGEND H/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 10 | 69.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 7 | 23.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SMART CHARADE B/TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 11 | 202.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | BEAUTY CHARISMA CP/TT M F Poon · J Moore | M F Poon | J Moore | 5 | 53.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS TT1 Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 1 | 7.4 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | AQUILA | 41.1% | 2.43 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | GENTLE BREEZE | 10.1% | 9.90 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SUPER JUNIOR | 9.7% | 10.31 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 9.5% | 10.53 | 12 |
| 5 | 6 | FRUSTRATED | 6.9% | 14.42 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SPECIAL STARS | 6.0% | 16.75 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | BREEDERS' STAR | 4.6% | 21.56 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | YOUNG LEGEND | 3.7% | 26.72 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | CALIFORNIA ARGENT | 2.9% | 34.76 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | SMART CHARADE | 2.6% | 38.69 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | BEAUTY CHARISMA | 1.7% | 57.47 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | BREEDERS' SKY | 1.1% | 90.26 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 52.5
PLACE
6 18
8 35
12 15
QUINELLA
6,12 197.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,8 113
6,12 49
8,12 83
TIERCE
12,6,8 2,645
TRIO
6,8,12 613
FIRST 4
6,8,11,12 161
QUARTET
12,6,8,11 6,142
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 14
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
9/6 47
9/12 187.5