Happy Valley · 2019-11-20
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LORIZ, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with CONFUCIUS DAY second and HARMONY N HOME third. The 4.0 favourite CONFUCIUS DAY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LORIZ B 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 3 | 4.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | HARMONY N HOME Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | CASIMIRO G van Niekerk · C H Yip | G van Niekerk | C H Yip | 5 | 8.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | GOOD FOR YOU B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 1 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | METHANE L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 10 | 4.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SUNNY DRAGON CP/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 11 | 36.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 9 | 9.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | NUNCHUKS U Rispoli · C Fownes | U Rispoli | C Fownes | 2 | 25.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | JUNZI K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 7 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | STAR OF THEHARBOUR M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 117.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | COOLCELEB B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 12 | 55.0 | 19-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HARMONY N HOME | 16.8% | 5.97 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 16.5% | 6.05 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 14.7% | 6.79 | 8 |
| 4 | 6 | LORIZ | 12.2% | 8.20 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | CASIMIRO | 8.6% | 11.61 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | METHANE | 6.8% | 14.63 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | COOLCELEB | 5.3% | 18.93 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | JUNZI | 5.0% | 19.95 | 10 |
| 9 | 9 | SUNNY DRAGON | 4.7% | 21.50 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | NUNCHUKS | 4.3% | 23.02 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | GOOD FOR YOU | 3.9% | 25.89 | 5 |
| 12 | 4 | STAR OF THEHARBOUR | 1.2% | 83.20 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 46
PLACE
1 14.5
3 50.5
6 19
QUINELLA
1,6 95.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 135.5
1,6 37.5
3,6 172.5
TIERCE
6,1,3 3,011
TRIO
1,3,6 581
FIRST 4
1,3,6,12 895
QUARTET
6,1,3,12 16,016
1ST DOUBLE
1/1 200.5
1/6 1,127.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 23
A3 —
A1 —