Happy Valley · 2019-11-20
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM Closed strongly 1.39.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 11 | 3.5 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 2 | 3.9 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | PICKEN Closed strongly U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 5 | 10.0 | N |
| 4 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 3 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | SURREALISM Closed strongly H R Bayliss · D E Ferraris | R Bayliss | D E Ferraris | 6 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | MONSTER KAKA Led early H-/P- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly H/TT A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 10 | 29.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 9.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | MR ALDAN B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 8.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | AMAZING LUCK B S De Sousa · P O'Sullivan | S De Sousa | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | JADE FORTUNE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 37.0 | 11-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-20 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RELIABLE TEAM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with CINQUANTE CINQ second and PICKEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | RELIABLE TEAM | 26.5% | 3.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 14.3% | 7.01 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 12.0% | 8.31 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | MR ALDAN | 10.1% | 9.87 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | PICKEN | 9.6% | 10.39 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | AMAZING LUCK | 8.1% | 12.38 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | MONSTER KAKA | 7.5% | 13.28 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 3.7% | 27.05 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | SURREALISM | 2.5% | 40.02 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.3% | 42.66 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 1.7% | 59.17 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | JADE FORTUNE | 1.6% | 63.82 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 35
PLACE
1 15.5
3 30
10 16.5
QUINELLA
1,10 80.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 67
1,10 34.5
3,10 79.5
TIERCE
1,10,3 1,060
TRIO
1,3,10 219
FIRST 4
1,3,6,10 790
QUARTET
1,10,3,6 12,842
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,9,11/1,3,10 52,358
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 20.5
7TH DOUBLE
11/1 1,310.5
11/10 181